Data Scientist Previews 50/50 UFC Fights

In last week’s Sunday UFC IcePack Analysis, we talked about how BCDC is 20-7 with over 14U on these 50/50 fights by our data scientist. This weekend’s fights are great to look at from a data perspective since both matchups are toss up fights and have exciting, well-known fighters.

Ronnie Lawrence vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov

To start off our fight analysis, we will take a look at the projected type of fight and whether the fight goes the distance. The fight is projected to a be a striking fight that does not go the distance. So, we have a fight that might end in a knockout.

Right now, Ronnie averages about 20 strikes before a knockdown in his two UFC fights. However, Saidyokub has a much better striking accuracy than Ronnie.

If the fight is going to be a standup fight, then power and cardio are what matters.

Ronnie Lawrence is:

2-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min
2-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min
2-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min
2-0 against fighters with 14 or more for Total Time in Octagon

Ronnie has seen the type of striker Saidyokub is twice before, whereas Saidyokub has never seen a fighter like Ronnie.

Bantamweight fights go to a decision 48.73% of the time. Personally, I do not see this fight lasting long. Submission wins are rare these days, but the key stat for me is that Saidyokub got taken down in his one UFC fight. Ronnie has 11 minutes of control time in 2 fights with a takedown accuracy of 78%. This indicates Ronnie may take down Saidyokub and potentially try to submit him.

Right now, all stats are leading to Ronnie. But, before making predictions, let’s look at the Bayesian simulation model below.

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models, BCDC is 60% sure that Ronnie Lawrence is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 21%. With odds at +105, this is a huge edge unless the bookies increase the price. My prediction is Ronnie Lawrence to win this 50/50 matchup.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Karl Roberson

To start this fight analysis off, I am going to show you a key stat that will either set the tone for you or will pull away from this analysis. In his career, Roberson has won 1 out of 3 fights at similar odds of 110 (Range 130 to -110).

This is huge in my opinion, and it tells me a lot about Karl Roberson for sportsbook oddsmakers. This stat tells me that Karl is read like a book for sportsbooks. Karl struggles to be read as the favorite… but, as an underdog, they are right 75% of the time. The sportsbooks have read this book one too many times to fall for Karl Roberson being the winner.

Showing the fighters win and loss record in the UFC with the pre-fight odds.
Career fighting in June shows that Karl Roberson does win in June where Kennedy Nzechukwu does win in June

Profits, profits, and profits. I don’t tell the NASDAQ what to do and you should not tell the sportsbooks what to do. Sometimes the exchange is better than you at times, and you should ride the market. I will be riding with the market and putting money on Kennedy Nzechukwu to win this fight.

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