Grant Emrick Breakdowns UFC 284 Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

February 11, 2023

Emrick’s 2023 UFC Fighter Pick Record (27-9-1)

Main Events (2-1)

Lock of the Week (3-0)

Dawg of the Week (1-2)

Lifetime Fighter Pick Record (325-171-4)

Early Prelim Predictions:

LW: Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) vs. Elves Brenner (13-3)

Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov

FW: Shane Young (13-6) vs. Blake Bilder (7-0-1)

Pick: Blake Bilder *Dawg of the Week*

WSTRAW: Loma Lookboonme (7-3) vs. Elise Reed (6-2)

Pick: Loma Lookboonme

FW: Jack Jenkins (10-2) vs. Don Shainis (12-4)

Pick: Jack Jenkins *Lock of the Week*

LW: Jamie Mullarkey (15-5) vs. Francisco Prado (11-0)

Pick: Jamie Mullarkey

FLY: Shannon Ross (13-6) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (7-2)

Pick: Kleydson Rodrigues

Prelim Predictions:

FW: Joshua Culibao (10-1-1) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1)

Pick: Melsik Baghdasaryan

LHW: Tyson Pedro (9-3) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5)

Pick: Tyson Pedro

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Main Card Predictions:

LHW: #12 Jimmy Crute (12-3) vs. Alonzo Menifield (13-3)

Pick: Alonzo Menifield (+160)

Quick Reasoning: It’s almost been 2.5 years since Crute has won a fight. A weird doctor stoppage loss to Anthony Smith and TKO against Jamahal Hill have thrown his career into a downward spiral the past two years. I’m worried for him to return against the big-bodied Menifield, a fighter who doesn’t have as good of a strength of schedule but has shown more ways to win then Crute. Barring an unfortunate decision that went the other way, Menifield should be 5-0 with three finishes since 2021. Menifield also has great takedown defense and can fight for all three rounds or finish his opponents. Crute has not had a single decision in seven UFC fights, with six of those ending within the first round. I don’t like his kill-or-be-killed style against Menfield here, so I’m riding with the hot hand in “Atomic” Alonzo to get this done by early finish. This is a genuine toss-up, but the chin or Crute is a little too worrisome as of late.

HW: Justin Tafa (5-3) vs. Parker Porter (13-7)

Pick: Parker Porter (+105)

Quick Reasoning: It seems like the UFC loves feeding in some low level LHW or HW fights into PPV main cards lately, so I guess I’ll be having some Parker Porter. It’s a pretty easy call for me here, as I’m siding with Porter to get this done via decision. Tafa has no wins over current UFC competition and has lost to Jared Vanderaa, Carlos Felipe, and was KO’d by Yorgan De Castro. Porter’s only two UFC losses have come to Chris Daukaus in his debut and Jailton Almeida on short-notice. While I don’t think either guy puts up a big fight against ranked competition, I do see Porter as the better overall fighter. The negative striking differential for Tafa really worries me, but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with Porter’s wrestling and control work in this one. If Tafa wins, it’ll most likely be by an early KO. The most likely scenario I see is Porter taking this via decision, but there could be an opportunity for a late finish if Tafa drains himself early. Porter is an opportunistic fighter and will use his arsenal to get the win come Saturday night.

WW: Jack Della Maddalena (13-2) vs. Randy Brown (16-4)

Pick: Jack Della Maddalena (-330)

Quick Reasoning: Now things are getting interesting. JDM averages almost 8.5 significant strikes landed per minute and has finished all three of his UFC fights in impressive fashion. We’ve seen him KO his opponents, show off his slick striking, and escape some dangerous ground positions en route to where we are today with Jack. Randy Brown is no joke either, coming in on a four fight win streak and his only since 2019 being to Vicente Luque. This is a big moment for both fighters, as both have a very good shot of entering the rankings with a win. I think we’ll see some more out of JDM here, as Brown should be able to use his height and reach to avoid some of the heat thrown by Jack. Maybe this will lead to some clinch work, potentially a takedown attempt, and dirty boxing. I think this will be the x-factor that decides the fight, but I see Della Maddalena keeping his undefeated UFC streak alive by the end of it. My only hope is to see more of him so he’s less of an enigma in terms of understanding what he is and isn’t capable of. Brown is good and technical enough to push this past the first round, so I’m excited to see how JDM responds. Late finish or UD is the pick in favor of Jack Della Maddalena.

FW: #2 Yair Rodriguez (15-3, 1 NC) vs. #5 Josh Emmett (18-2) *Interim Title Fight*

Pick: Yair Rodriguez (-180)

Quick Reasoning: After going back and forth on the battle for Volkanovski’s next victim, I have decided to go with Yair. This pick may have some saltiness leftover from the Kattar vs. Emmett result, as I just don’t see Emmett as title-contender worthy. He has power, that we know. But Emmett also has a dead even striking differential against lesser competition than Yair, showed cracks during the championship rounds against Kattar, and is the smaller and aging fighter. Both fighters are near-even on the ground, but Yair is the higher-volume and more accurate striker who also absorbs less damage per minute than Emmett. I am worried about the more powerful Emmett landing a killshot on Yair, but I think the athleticism and mobility of Rodriguez will take him out of harm’s way. It’ll be interesting to see if Emmett employs a ground-heavy strategy against Rodriguez, but I think he’ll have to choose his shots wisely over a five-round span. I’m siding with the youth of Yair to get Emmett out of his comfort zone and pour on the volume over five-rounds en route to victory. I see this as a UD or championship-round win for Yair, but watch out for the heavy hands of Emmett.

LW: *Champion* Islam Makhachev (23-1) vs. *FW Champion* Alexander Volkanovski (25-1)

Pick: Islam Makhachev (-410)

Quick Reasoning: With all my heart I’d love to see Volkanovski win. Not only to avenge Charles Oliveira, but because he’s a likable champ and everyone loves an underdog story. If this was Alex against Charles, I’d probably say Volkanovski would get it done. However, the other big reason we’d love to see Volkanovski win is because Islam is slated for a long, dominant run as a champion. Don’t get me wrong, I have all the respect in the world for Islam. There’s nobody seemingly close to as gifted as him on the ground at LW, especially since Khabib has retired from MMA altogether. I chose with my heart when Charles faced Islam last time out and it crushed me. This time I will pick with my head – and continue doing so – while rooting with my heart. First off, I think this is going to decision. Volkanovski has no neck, so Islam is best off attempting arm or leg submissions and wearing down on top of Alex to get him fatigued over the first few rounds. Islam is only absorbing less than one significant strike per minute, so the damage he’s likely to take is minimal. Neither guy really has major KO power against the elite of their divisions, so I think we’re in for a long fight. Both guys are close to a 2:1 striking differential, so we may see more patience and tactical gameplan as their cardios are some of the best in the UFC. The only way I see a KO occurring is if it comes from Volkanovski or Islam drains Alex en route to a ground and pound finish. The submission threat from Islam is there the entire fight as well. With few people being able to catch Islam clean since his loss years ago to Adriano Martins, I have no doubt that Volkanovski has the skills and IQ to pull this off. I just find it so unlikely that Islam can be beaten until that day comes. While I think that day could be Saturday, I’m worried that the size differential and move up a division to do that will be too tall a task for Volk. And while I hope to see him win in front of a home crowd, I see Islam spoiling the party. Makhachev via UD or submission is my pick.

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski