Afsan Rahman BCDC Analyst breaks down his best bet for UFC 273
UFC 273 is finally upon us! 2 title fights, starring Alexander “the Great” Volkanovski vs. “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, and the rematch between the people’s champion Petr “no mercy” Yan, and Aljamain Sterling. However, the fight that most UFC fans around the globe are most intrigued to watch, is Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns. Khamzat Chimaev may very well be the most highly touted prospect in UFC history, and that is saying a lot.
I will be giving a breakdown of the parlay which gives the best value for these 3 fights. We will begin with Alexander the great. One of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet, Volkanovski has been in there with the whose who of the featherweight division, with wins over Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, and twice against Max Holloway. In his fight with Brian Ortega, Volkanovski showed the true heart of a champion. After being caught in a mounted guillotine by Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelt Ortega, Volkanovski was in major trouble. The guillotine was tight, and his lights were dimming, however Volkanovski being the warrior that he is, slithered through the choke, only to end up in a D’arce choke again. Once he fought out of the D’arce, he was put in a very tight triangle by Ortega, which is T citys signature move. Once he survived 3 submission attempts from Ortega, it was time to make him pay, and that he did. All this to say, Brian Ortega dominated the Korean Zombie in his outing before the fight with Volkanovski. MMA Math does not add up, but it is very difficult for me to see a way in which the Korean Zombie is able to defeat Alexander Volkanovski. The odds are currently sitting at -800 at the moment, a price way too steep for any MMA fight in my opinion, where one simple leg kick could end the whole fight. The best value bet in this case will be to take Volkanovski to win by decision (-125). Volk has not finished a fight since 2018 and has only gotten a finish 3 out of his 10 fights in the UFC. The Korean Zombie is known for being able to take damage and keep moving forward, so I do not see Volkanovski being able to put him away.
We move on to the next title fight, Yan vs. Sterling. If you have watched the first bout between the two, it was very clear where the fight was heading before the illegal knee. Yan was picking sterling apart in the striking, as well as the grappling, defending 16/17 takedowns, and landing 7/7 takedowns of his own. Yan dominated this fight wherever it went, and it is hard for me to see it going any other way, especially considering the fact that Sterling is coming off a major surgery. To see how gassed out Sterling was in rounds 3 and 4, makes me believe had the fight lasted any longer, Yan would have found the finish. I am picking Petr Yan to win this fight by KO/TKO/DQ (+150).
We now get to the people’s main event, Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gilbert Burns. A former 4-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, Burns has all the tools necessary to derail the hype train that is Khamzat Chimaev. Gilbert Burns almost put Kamaru Usman out in the first round, and once he recovered it was clear that the wrestler Usman was unwilling to engage with Burns on the ground. However, Burn’s success against the champ was short lived, as Usman was hurting Burns on the feet with whatever he threw, knocked him down with a jab and then got the TKO finish. Gilbert Burns being a former lightweight, who was also KO’d by Dan Hooker, at lightweight, does not have the chin to stand in there with Khamzat Chimaev. Khamzat who has recently fought at middleweight and has 2 knockouts at middleweight is massive for this weight class. I do not believe Khamzat will even bother messing around on the ground with Burns. Regardless of Khamzat’s elite wrestling, he is still only a blue belt in jiu jitsu, compared to Burns being a world champion black belt. Khamzat has a 5-inch height advantage, as well as a 4-inch reach advantage over Burns, and my prediction is he will put that to use considering Burn’s weak chin. I am picking Khamzat to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+120).
As mentioned earlier, Khamzat Chimaev is one of the most hyped prospects the UFC has ever witnessed, and I am all the way behind the hype train. This will be a major step up in competition, but I believe Khamzat will make it look easy. I have even picked Khamzat to win by KO/TKO/DQ in the first round (+250), but I wouldn’t recommend playing that as the main pick for this fight. (+120) is of great value, even if the fight goes to the second or third round, Khamzat will find the finish as he has done in every fight of his career. 10-0 with 6 knockouts and 4 submissions, Khamzat Chimaev is the real deal.
The absolute best value in the sports betting industry is a great parlay. We are lucky enough to have 3 of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet fighting on the same card to build a parlay around. The parlay I will be playing is as follows.
Volkanovski by decision – (-125)
Yan by KO/TKO/DQ – (+150)
Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ – (+120)
3 leg parlay = (+890)