BCDC Analyst Breaks Down UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

June 4, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (102-55) – 65% Correct

Prelim Predictions:

WFLY: Erin Blanchfield (8-1) vs. JJ Aldrich (11-4)

  • Pick: Erin Blanchfield

WW: Rinat Fakhretdinov (18-1) vs. Andreas Michailidis (13-5)

  • Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov

FLY: Jeff Molina (10-2) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6)

  • Pick: Jeff Molina

BW: Johnny Munoz (11-1) vs. Tony Gravely (22-7)

  • Pick: Johnny Munoz

LW: Niklas Stolze (12-5) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (8-1, 1 NC)

  • Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis

FW: Damon Jackson (20-4-1, 1 NC) vs. Dan Argueta (8-0)

  • Pick: Damon Jackson

LW: Joe Solecki (11-3) vs. Alex da Silva Coelho (21-3)

  • Pick: Joe Solecki

WSTRAW: Felice Herrig (14-9) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-7)

  • Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz


Main Card Predictions:

LHW: Alonzo Menifield (11-3) vs. Askar Mozharov (19-12)

  • Pick: Alonzo Menifield (-260)
  • Quick Reasoning: Menifield gets to fight a newcomer to the UFC that’s been finished in 3 of his last 6 and hasn’t fought since November 2020? Sign me up for a Menifield finish and maybe a sprinkle on Menifield to use some ground game to win by submission. Mozharov has never lost by decision, losing 8 of 12 via submission. 

FLY: Ode Osbourne (10-4, 1 NC) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (4-3)

  • Pick: Ode Osbourne (-190)
  • Quick Reasoning: Although a somewhat risky pick, I like Osbourne against Adashev – a great kickboxer – due to Adashev’s lack of talent outside of his punches and kicks. Even though Osbourne isn’t the most dangerous takedown artist, the threat will always be there to face Adashev. I like Osbourne’s metrics with a 2” height and 8” reach advantage to keep Adashev at bay and sail fairly smoothly into a UD or late-TKO win.

WFLY: Karine Silva (14-4) vs. Poliana Botelho (8-4)

  • Pick: Poliana Botelho (+105)
  • Quick Reasoning: With many shaky debuts following a contract performance on DWCS, I have to avoid the curse and go with Botelho in this fight. Silva was controlled for nearly a round’s worth of time before earning a 2nd round submission victory on DWCS. I trust Botelho to pressure Silva against the fence or piece her up on the feet early, but it all comes down to her gas tank. The UFC veteran experience for Botelho also helps, which is why I’m thinking Botelho via UD or SD, with the first two rounds determining the winner. 

FW: Mike Trizano (10-2) vs. Lucas Almeida (12-1)

  • Pick: Mike Trizano (-230)
  • Quick Reasoning: A DWCS defeat turned UFC contract in a matter of one fight? Come on now, I feel like we have to be missing something. Almeida was outstruck and grappled when he lost 2 of 3 rounds in a UD loss during his DWCS performance, so why should he win Saturday night? Well, he probably shouldn’t. Trizano’s 2 defeats in the UFC come from Hakeem Dawadu and Grant Dawson, who have a combined UFC record of 13-2. Assuming Trizano makes it out of the first round, I love the odds of him keeping a technical style and outworking Almeida en route to a UD victory. 

FW: #10 Dan Ige (15-5) vs. BCDC #4 Movsar Evloev (15-0)

  • Pick: Movsar Evloev (-420)
  • Quick Reasoning: I love Dan Ige, but damn, this is an awful matchup for him. Evloev outstrikes him (4.32 vs. 3.90 per minute), receives less damaging strikes (2.79 vs. 3.47 per minute), and lands nearly 4 takedowns per 15 minutes with similar or better metrics across the board. Yes, Evloev hasn’t been tested with the hard-hitting power that Ige’s hands hold, but a 63% defensive rate helps me believe Movsar can avoid Ige. There’s been a lot of talk about TKZ’s control over Ige in their last matchup, but I think – even if a fluke performance – Evloev can put up a similar performance. Evloev hasn’t had a finish in his 5 UFC fights, so I’m going to stick with a UD victory until proven otherwise.

HW: #7 Alexander Volkov (34-10) vs. BCDC #10 Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3)

  • Pick: Alexander Volkov (-160)
  • Quick Reasoning: Other than the notable last-minute comeback of Derrick Lewis, Volkov has yet to lose to a UFC fighter that doesn’t offer up a level of submission or takedown threat. Good thing for Volkov that Rozenstruik has yet to even attempt a takedown in 9 UFC fights. When Volkov isn’t worried about the takedown threat from the likes of Cyril Gane, Tom Aspinall, and Curtis Blaydes, he is able to keep moving on the feet and using his lengthy frame to his advantage. The thing to look out for in this fight is Rozenstruik’s punching power, as he’s never won in the UFC without a TKO. Assuming the focus is on the feet, I see Volkov remaining patient and earning a TKO victory late in the championship rounds.  

Emrick’s Combat Sports Betting (-3.872u):

  • Parlays:
    • Evloev, Jackson, Blanchfield ML’s
      • 1u to win 0.827u
    • Naoya Inoue ML, Blanchfield ML, Fakhretdinov/Michailidis DNGTD
      • 1u to win 1.120u
    • Gervonte Davis, Stephen Fulton ML’s
      • 2.5u to win 0.659u
  • Straight Bets:
    • Johnny Munoz Jr. 
      • 0.8u to win 0.896u
    • Osbourne ML
      • 2u to win 1.053u
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