UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
May 21, 2022
Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (95-51)
WSTRAW: Elise Reed (5-1) vs. Sam Hughes (6-4)
- Pick: Elise Reed
FW: Chase Hooper (10-2-1) vs. Felipe Colares (10-3)
- Pick: Felipe Colares
BW: Jonathan Martinez (15-4) vs. Vince Morales (11-5)
- Pick: Jonathan Martinez
LW: Omar Morales (11-2) vs. Uros Medic (7-1)
- Pick: Uros Medic
HW: Jailton Almeida (15-2) vs. Parker Porter (13-6)
- Pick: Jailton Almeida
MW: Joseph Holmes (7-2) vs. Alen Amedovski (8-2)
- Pick: Joseph Holmes
Main Card Predictions:
MW: Eryk Anders (14-6, 1 NC) vs. Park Jun-yong (13-5)
- Pick: Park Jun-yong (-210)
- Quick Reasoning: Although Anders holds plenty of KO power, Park holds an advantage in the grappling department that should lead to a UD or submission victory. As long as Park utilizes his technical abilities and avoids the heavy shots from Anders, this is Park’s fight to lose.
WSTRAW: Polyana Viana (12-4) vs. Tabatha Ricci (6-1)
- Pick: Polyana Viana (+110)
- Quick Reasoning: Serving as the more talented striker and superior on the mat to her opponent, Viana should should be able to pull away with the underdog victory Saturday night. Viana should be able to limit Ricci’s takedowns and ride her 6” reach and 4” height advantage into her third straight win.
MW: Chidi Njokuani (21-7, 1 NC) vs. Dusko Todorovic (11-2)
- Pick: Chidi Njokuani (-260)
- Quick Reasoning: Njokuani’s experience, confidence from his three fight TKO streak, and size advantage have me riding high on the former Bellator headliner. This may be a fight to test Chidi’s chin, as Todorovic lands nearly 6 significant strikes per minute. However, Todorovic’s output comes at a cost of absorbing almost 5 significant strikes per minute as well, something that Njokuani can exploit for an early KO victory.
WW: #14 Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-5) vs. Michel Pereira (27-11, 2 NC)
- Pick: Michel Pereira (-140)
- Quick Reasoning: I love the strength of schedule for Ponzinibbio, but I just see a better-rounded Pereira going hard to earn some points in the first two rounds before emptying the gas tank in round three. Pereira’s unorthodox style may make Ponzinibbio, landing only 40% of hist strikes, do a lot of swinging and missing while clipping Ponzinibbio with many countershots. Ponzinibbio also absorbs 4.51 strikes per minute and dishes out 4.79 of his own strikes, which could prove costly against a slick striker like Pereira. Michel Pereira by UD or SD for the win seems likely, but this could go either way.
WBW: BCDC #10 Holly Holm (14-5) vs. BCDC #5 Ketlen Vieira (12-2)
- Pick: Holly Holm
- Quick Reasoning: Holm might have the best argument for this card – as well as most of the female fighters in the UFC – regarding the most difficult strength of schedule. All of the losses for Holm have come from title fights or Valentina Shevchenko, and has only been finished twice in her career (2016 Meisha Tate and 2019 Amanda Nunes). You can argue that Holm’s most recent wins are over fighters better than Vieira, with Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana. Vieira hasn’t really had a great win over an elite contender, as she recently beat a post five-year layoff Meisha Tate. The work on the ground is solid for Vieira, but it won’t be more explosive than anything Holm has seen before. Holm still has solid power, has improved her own ground game, and will be a fresh fighter coming in with a somewhat-lengthy layoff of over 1.5 years. I find it hard to trust fighters who absorb more strikes than give out, which is what Vieira does (3.07 landed vs. 4.07 absorbed per minute). Although she may not regain her status as champion, Holm seems to be in great shape and with high hopes as she performs her first bout aged 40 or older. I do see a decision or TKO win for Holm, earning more points in 4 of the 5 rounds in a decisive victory.
What Emrick’s Betting (-0.459u):
- Almeida, Holm ML
- 5u to win 3.280u
- Almeida, Holm ML
- Straight Bets:
- Holmes ML
- 1.5u to win 0.769u
- Martinez ML
- 1.8u to win 0.818u
- Holmes ML