BCDC Analyst Previews UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett

June 18, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (121-63) – 66% Correct

Prelim Predictions:

MW: Roman Dolidze (9-1) vs. Kyle Daukaus (11-2, 1 NC)

MW: Phil Hawes (11-3) vs. Deron Winn (7-2)

BW: Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) vs. Cody Stamann (19-5-1)

WSTRAW: Maria Oliveira (12-5) vs. Gloria de Paula (6-4)

FW: Ricardo Ramos (15-4) vs. Danny Chavez (11-4-1)

WW: Court McGee (22-10) vs. Jeremiah Wells (10-2-1)

WFLY: Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-1) vs. Natalia Silva (12-5-1)

BW: BCDC #1 Adrian Yanez (15-3) vs. Tony Kelley (8-2)

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Main Card Predictions:

MW: Julian Marquez (9-2) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (11-4)

Quick Reasoning: Rodrigues has the longer reach and height to clip Marquez from a distance. Marquez does have good success grappling, but Rodrigues has been able to keep good grapplers (Junyong Park and Dusko Todorovic) at bay and win via TKO or decision. Between the two, 20 of 26 combined fights have not seen the distance. This fight is closer to a 50/50 fight that could see a slow-paced snoozer or a major finish in the works. I’ll slide with a better-tested Rodrigues to stop Marquez early.

LW: BCDC #6 Damir Ismagulov (23-1) vs. Guram Kutateladze (12-2)

Quick Reasoning: Ismagulov is well-rounded, as he successfully defends almost 2 out of every 3 strikes from opponents. He also has a 2:1 ratio in strikes landed vs. strikes absorbed per minute. Ismagulov also has a slightly longer reach than Kutateladze, so he’s able to work from distance and improve his chances of successfully defending Guram’s attacks. Yes, Guram beat Mateusz Gamrot in each of their debuts. However, I just think the inexperience in the UFC – especially last fighting in late 2020 – will hinder a more active Ismagulov. I just don’t trust the time away due to a knee injury and lack of UFC experience in Guram, so I’m going with Ismagulov via decision.

MW: Joaquin Buckley (14-4) vs. Albert Duraev (15-3)

Quick Reasoning: Assuming Duraev makes it through the first round and a flurry from Buckley, he will use his “wet blanket” style and chain-wrestle his way against Buckley to a decision. This fight can be anywhere from a banger favoring Buckley to a bathroom break victory for Duraev.

WW: Tim Means (32-12-1, 1 NC) vs. Kevin Holland (22-7, 1 NC)

Quick Reasoning: Holland maybe isn’t the top-5 caliber fighter we thought he was during 2020. But a 6” reach advantage and an improved grappling ability over the past year make Holland a dangerous opponent for anyone. Means is a solid fighter on a 3-fight win streak, but I think Holland is one of the best unranked opponents anyone can face at the welterweight level. With a so-so experience on the mat for Means (5-5 for submissions for and against), I trust Holland to stay on the feet and use his range and slick hands to put Means down in the first two rounds.

LW: Donald Cerrone (36-16, 2 NC) vs. Joe Lauzon (28-16)

Quick Reasoning: I really don’t enjoy making a pick for this fight, but siding with the more active fighter feels right for me. Although having lost his last 5 fights, last winning in 2019, the level of competition for Cerrone has included the names of McGregor, Ferguson, and Gaethje, all of who remain ranked at the top of the lightweight division. Lauzon hasn’t fought since 2019 and actually has a more recent victory than Cerrone from his TKO win over Jonathan Pearce in late 2019. Joe Lauzon is talented on the ground, but Cerrone has given up only 1 submission loss which was over a decade ago to Benson Henderson. With both fighters having some experience with questionable chins at their age, I can see this being a brawl similar to the Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena fight earlier this year. By the end of the day, I have to side with the more active fighter and the person who has maintained the fighter mentality to get the job done. We saw what happened to Nick Diaz and Robbie Lawler’s battle, as Diaz didn’t show much resemblance to the fighter he used to be. Cerrone by TKO is where I’m leaning, but don’t be shocked if Lauzon reels in a finish of his own. A retirement fight is very possible for both pioneers in the MMA world, but it’s time Cerrone gets his due. Also, with “Cowboy” in Texas, how could I say no?

FW: #4 Calvin Kattar (23-5) vs. #7 Josh Emmett (17-2)

Quick Reasoning: Did Kattar get his ass handed to him against a FW legend in Max Holloway? Yes. Did Kattar absolutely murder Giga Chikadze for 5 rounds? Yes. Kattar isn’t afraid to fight the best and give his best whenever he’s able. Emmett is an opponent he should be able to push for multiple rounds while in control behind the wheel. In 47 combined fights, only 2 of Kattar and Emmett’s combined losses have come via stoppage. Kattar, with 5-round main event experience, immense durability, and a 5” height and 2” reach advantage over Emmett, should be able to put on another classic performance in what could be a major slugfest one-or-both ways. A common opponent is also at play with Dan Ige, who Kattar dismantled for 5 rounds in what 2 of 3 judges gave 4 rounds to 1 for Kattar. Emmett most recently beat Ige with 2 rounds to 1 UD, in which Emmett vs. Ige media voters saw 7 siding with Emmett as the winner and 6 with Ige. I also don’t like Emmett’s inactivity, fighting only twice since August 2019. Emmett has great power, but I think Kattar is one of the best boxers at the division and should play a very technical style to pick apart Emmett en route to a UD/championship round KO.

Emrick’s Combat Sports Betting (-1.175u):

Parlays:
- Hawes and Holland ML
  - 0.8u to win 0.718u
- Yanez and Stamann ML
  - 1.2u to win 0.652u
- Warriors to win NBA Finals, de Paula ML, Yanez ML, Kattar ML (Rounds 4, 5, or Decision)
  - 0.5u to win 2.148u

Straight Bets:
- Daukaus ML
  - 1u to win 0.417u
- Rodrigues ML
  - 1u to win 0.526u
- Cerrone ML
  - 1u to win 0.588u
- Holland ML
  - 0.913u to win 0.304u