BCDC has not been more excited for a fight all year! This fight is everything the UFC and MMA is about – Bringing the two toughest opponents in a certain weight class together to fight. The UFC prides itself on getting the best of the best for fights.
Let’s breakdown some of the relevant information on this fight. Charles Oliveira has won 11 fights in a row, and Islam Makhachev has won 10 fights in a row.
Oliveira has finished 6 out of his last 7 fights since May 18, 2019.
Oliveira is on a 2-fight submission win streak, and odds are at +300 for Oliveira to win by submission.
Makhachev has won 5 of his previous 6 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach.
Charles Oliveira is +155, which is cheaper than 86.2 % of his previous UFC fights (29 fights total).
Islam Makhachev is -180, which is cheaper than 83.3% of his previous UFC fights (12 fights total).
Historically, the fight has a 17.1% chance it goes the entire 5 rounds.
Odds are +300 for this fight to go the distance.
Oddsmakers see this fight having a 25.0% chance of going all 5 rounds. The chance the fight ends in less than three rounds is 80.49%. In his last three fights, Oliveira averages 6 minutes in the octagon. On the other side of the octagon, Makhachev has averaged 8 minutes in his last three fights.
Lightweights priced between 175 to 135 (like Oliveira) are 2-8 in the last 10 fights.
Lightweights priced between -160 to -200 (like Makhachev) are 8-2 in the last 10 fights.
A fighter with similar odds of 175 to 135 and a reach of 74 inches, like Oliveira in this fight, is 1-9 in the last 10 fights. Fighters with a reach of 74 inches such as Charles Oliveira are 1-4 in the last 5 fights at Lightweight.
Now that we will have drilled into trends and some possible good bets, let’s drill into what our statistical models and machine learning model projects.
Our models project this to be a ground fight. Someone is going to take the other one down and will keep it on the ground.
Our statistical simulation projects Charles Oliveira to win 61% of the time these two fight.
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Charles Oliveira: 619
Wins for Islam Makhachev: 381
Using Bayesian Simulation, beforethecagedoorcloses is 88% sure that Islam Makhachev is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 7%.
Our statistical simulation model and Bayesian simulation model disagree on the winner of the fight. However, the statistical simulation model has Charles winning by submission most of the time. The models are definitely projecting Islam to take Charles down… it’s just about whether or not Charles submits him.
The price is a bit surprising as Oliveira has dominated his recent fights with forward hard striking power. My biggest concern on his side is the punishment he takes standing up and then getting knocked down. Most fighters don’t want to grapple with him, but Islam wants the challenge… and that’s where the discrepancies between price really occur. Charles’ most impressive element in his fight game is also Islam’s best trait. Who dominates who? How long is Islam willing to play this dangerous game on the ground?
Our machine learning model is 65% accurate with a normalized win percentage of 56%, which is a nearly unheard-of win percentage. Our model does not shy away from 50/50 fights, and we use expected value to make sure we get the right money each fight.
Our machine learning model projects Islam Makhachev to win this fight at about 74% probability. That means you have a 10% edge with Islam as he’s currently being priced at 64% (-180) for now.
Lastly, let’s look at who is best priced to win you some money with the least amount of worry.
Below are some final stats for Makhachev against similar fighters as Oliveira over his career:
Islam Makhachev is 4-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
Islam Makhachev is 6-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
Islam Makhachev is 2-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Knockdown Total Difference.
Islam Makhachev is 3-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
Islam Makhachev is 2-0 against fighters with 48 or more for Control Time.
Islam Makhachev is 3-0 against fighters with 195 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
Below are some final stats for Oliveira against similar fighters as Makhachev over his career:
Charles Oliveira is 19-8 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
Charles Oliveira is 20-8 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
Charles Oliveira is 7-2 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
Charles Oliveira is 15-7 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
Charles Oliveira is 10-7 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
Charles Oliveira is 9-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
Charles Oliveira is 13-2 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
Charles Oliveira is 3-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Reversals.
Charles Oliveira is 7-0 against fighters with 55 or more for Control Time.
Charles Oliveira is 2-0 against fighters with 46 or more for Control Time Difference.
Charles Oliveira is 6-5 against fighters with 125 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
Charles Oliveira is 8-5 against fighters with 108 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
Charles Oliveira is 6-0 against fighters with 11 or more for Total Wins.
Our final tell is the sportsbook view on these fighters and how often they get the right odds for these fighters. In the below graph, we can see Charles is 6-3 as an underdog in his career and 3-0 in his last 3 underdog fights. Islam has been favored in every contest and is the favorite again in blue. He is 10-1 as a favorite in the UFC.
This graph is one of the most important tools to use. Understanding how well the sportsbooks know these fighters is crucial to knowing who to bet on. One other thing to consider in this graph is level of difficulty for fighters. Islam has fought nobody like Charles, but Charles has never fought a grappler of this pedigree before either.
With all this being said, it is time to pick the fighter we think will win this fight.
I will never go against Islam Makhachev until I see otherwise. Islam being priced at -180 is golden for me. Showing that we have a 10% edge or more room to bet on this fighter means this is a smart bet. The Bayesian Simulation model having him at over 88% (which is 24% edge) only sweetens the deal. Oliveira has the respect of the sportsbooks to get Makhachev this cheap, but I personally am riding with Makhachev by price and the models.
Does the statistical simulation model and stats for Oliveira show some clear ways for him to handle Makhachev? Absolutely! The statistical simulation gives Oliveira a 20% edge (61% minus +155 price converted to 39%). However, the simulation model expects Oliveira to get a submission more than suspected in the fight. In my opinion, it’s over estimating Oliveira’s submission skills. Makhachev is not like other stat line fighters for grappling.
Therefore, BCDC plans to bet on Makhachev at the price of -180, but if he begins to go over -210, then shifting to Oliveira is the way to guarantee the best price on edge.