Grant Emrick breakdowns UFC 283

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

January 20, 2023

Emrick’s 2023 UFC Fighter Pick Record (9-2)

Main Events (1-0)

Lock of the Week (1-0)

Dawg of the Week (0-1)

Lifetime Fighter Pick Record (307-164-3)

Prelim Predictions:

BW: Saimon Oliveira (18-4) vs. Daniel Marcos (13-0)

WFW: #15 WBW Josiane Nunes (-550) vs. Zarah Fairn (6-4)

WW: Warlley Alves (15-5) vs. Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1)

LW: Ismael Bonfim (18-3) vs. Terrance McKinney (13-4)

BW: Luan Lacerda (12-1) vs. Cody Stamann (20-5-1)

HW: #15 Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7) vs. Jailton Almeida (17-2)

WW: Gabriel Bonfim (13-0) vs. Mounir Lazzez (11-2)

LW: Thiago Moises (16-6) vs. Melquizael Costa (19-5)

MW: Gregory Rodrigues (13-4) vs. Bruno Ferreira (9-0)

LHW: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (27-13-1) vs. Ihor Potieria (19-3)

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Main Card Predictions:

LHW: #9 Paul Craig (16-5-1) vs. #12 Johnny Walker (19-7)

Quick Reasoning: This fight has so much potential to be very fun or very indecisive, but I’m ready for it to get weird. The nod goes to Walker based on his solidified striking ability against ranked competition, Craig’s weaker takedown percentage, and Craig’s lack of striking. Walker has knocked out the likes of Khalil Rountree Jr. and Ryan Spann, as well as gave Thiago Santos a close fight in a main event in 2021. Walker will also be the much bigger guy in this one, with a height and reach advantage of 3” and 6” respectively. Craig absorbs more strikes than dishes out – RED FLAG – and is only landing takedowns at a 20% clip. All it will take is one takedown for Craig to potentially submit Walker, but I see Walker keeping his distance and playing this one smart against his opponent. Walker performed well on the ground against Ion Cutelaba and Ryan Spann, but Craig is a different animal. With Walker knowing that Craig is so ground-focused, he can utilize the same game plan as Volkan Oezdemir and take him out of his comfort zone. A high IQ Walker gets this one done for sure, but only time will tell. I’ll bank on Walker keeping his distance and playing this smart from range.

WFW: #4 Lauren Murphy (16-5) vs. #6 Jessica Andrade (23-9)

Quick Reasoning: Lauren Murphy is tough and has a size advantage, but she also has a negative striking differential (-0.61), is not as active on the ground as her opponent, and her striking accuracy is very low (40%). Andrade has more contender-level experience, can be an absolute hammer against her opponents, and can beat her opponents in all facets of the game (5 TKOs, 2 Submissions, 6 Decisions). However, Andrade can be a nail against tough and highly talented opponents such as Shevchenko and Weili. While Murphy is tough, I don’t think she is tough enough to get by Andrade here and can handle Jessica’s pure strength in power punches. I like the performance and level of competition that Andrade has faced as well, especially with here well-aged win over Amanda Lemos in her last fight. I think Murphy is going to be able to get out of round one, but I don’t see her getting a win here.

WW: #5 Gilbert Burns (20-5) vs. #12 Neil Magny (27-10)

Quick Reasoning: Burns is so much smaller than Magny, by a 5” height and 9” reach differential. This isn’t anything new for Burns, especially after giving Khamzat Chimaev a run for his money in a close decision loss in his last fight. Both fighters have very similar metrics outside of physical attributes, but the deciding factor in this one is level of competition and that sides with Gilbert Burns. Magny was on his way to losing his last match before pulling off a late-submission victory over Daniel Rodriguez and had a slightly controversial win over Max Griffin in 2021. As odd as it sounds, I liked Burns’ performances in losses to Chimaev and knocking-down Usman much more than Magny in his victories as of late. While the metrics are similar and Magny is the WW wins leader, I believe Burns is better all-around and can eventually club-and-sub his opponent here.

FLY: *Champion* Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) vs. *Interim Champion* Brandon Moreno (20-6-2)

Quick Reasoning: If this wasn’t in Brazil I’d be siding with Moreno here. Most likely this will be Figgy’s final fight at Flyweight, and – let it be known – he has a negative striking differential in the UFC as well. However, this factor hasn’t truly applied to this rivalry. Moreno has the volume advantage between the two, but Figgy has unreal power that was able to drop Moreno three times in their last fight. If not for a point deduction in their first bout, Figgy would be 2-1 and there may not have been a fourth fight scheduled between the two. Moreno switched up his fight style and abandoned the threat of ground attack in his third fight, leading to some missteps on the feet against Figgy. I love this fight, I’m a huge Moreno fan, and I do believe that he’ll be champion once again. However, I think the power and technical skills of Figgy separate these two fighters, and I think that the home crowd will add an extra jolt to Figueiredo’s mindset heading into this one. The coaching change for Moreno is also worrisome with all of the background noise. I’m thinking Figgy via decision and plus odds look great, but Moreno may very well be up for the task to take this one back.

LHW: #2 Glover Teixeira (33-8) vs. #7 Jamahal Hill (11-1)

Quick Reasoning: The ground attack from Glover is going to be too much. As long as he doesn’t get TKO’d early by Hill, a dominant striker with power that lasts deep into the fights, Glover should be able to utilize his submission threat against the weaker ground game of Hill. After seeing Thiago Santos, a primarily striking fighter, land 6 of 20 takedown attempts via chain wrestling against Hill, Glover has to be licking his lips. It’s uncertain if Glover can be able to eat any power shots from Hill, who has a near 2-to-1 striking differential, but if he can get this fight to the mat early then it shouldn’t be aproblem for Teixeira. We saw how easily Paul Craig was able to get Hill into bad spots in their fight, but Glover has is more able to get his opponents to the ground and kept there with his threats on the feet as well. This is a massive jump in competition for Jamahal Hill as well, but his power alone makes him a very live challenger for the belt. Glover is 12-0 in the UFC when landing more takedowns than his opponents and I think this is the clear path to victory against Hill. There is no way Hill has had enough time to improve his abilities on the ground enough for an opponent like Glover, but that only matters if Glover gets him to those waters. I believe Glover will extend his aforementioned streak to 13-0 come Saturday night via a submission in the opening two rounds.