Last week, we broke down the Adesanya vs. Periera fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 27-11 with over 17.2U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good betting stats, statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Serghei Spivac has won 2 fights in a row and has won 6 of his last 9 fights. Spivac’s reach is 78 inches; Lewis is 6-3 against Heavyweights with a reach of 78″ or more. Lewis’s reach is 79 inches; Spivac is 3-0 against Heavyweights with a reach of 79″ or more. Derrick Lewis is +165, which is cheaper than 80.0 % of his previous UFC fights (25 fights total). Historically, the fight has a 20.6% chance it goes the entire 3 rounds.
Odds are +400 for this fight to go the distance.
However, breaking with historical data, oddsmakers believe the fight has a 20.0% chance it goes the entire 3 rounds. Heavyweight fights end in a finish 70.99% of the time; this fight to NOT go the distance is currently -650
Looking at the fighters’ previous fights, there is a 73.53% chance this fight ends in a Knockout. DraftKings has odds of -650 for this fight to not go the distance. Lewis in his last five fights averages 6 minutes in the octagon. Spivac in his last five fights averages 7 minutes in the octagon. Lewis has a record of 12-5 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Derrick. Both fighters will be extremely lethal, but Spivac has to be a bit better at never getting touched. Also, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage is 0.1743548
Knockout Percentage is 0.44351986
Submission Percentage is .3821253
Round 1 Percentage is 0.015300436
Round 2 Percentage is 0.11475388
Round 3 Percentage is 0.3331892
Round 4 Percentage is 0.10398757
Round 5 Percentage is .184575
Derrick Lewis is:
2-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
3-4 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
3-1 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Ground Attempts 1 min.
3-2 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
6-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-1 against fighters with 29 or more for Control Time.
4-1 against fighters with 17 or more for Control Time Difference.
7-4 against fighters with 76 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
7-7 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.
Serghei Spivac is:
4-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
4-3 against fighters with 3 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 22 or more for Control Time.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Derrick Lewis: 2
Wins for Serghei Spivac: 998
Last weekend, our statistical simulation predicted Periera (2-3) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Adesanya (3-2) It seems the pure statistical simulation favors a Spivac win, but the Bayes simulation is confident in Lewis
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 64.71%. Its prediction for this fight is that Serghei Spivac will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The best price for this fight is going with Derrick. Statistical Simulation or machine learning models going with Serghei does not matter. The price has not gone so far over for Serghei. Heavyweight fights are the most unique cases in the UFC. You are telling me he is going to win the fight 67% of the time? Get out of here with that price. I don’t disagree that he will likely win this fight, but the best price for this fight is Lewis and that is what this section is all about. None of us know whether he can take 10 punches of Lewis’s power or 80. That will be the key and the big thing we learned last weekend is that it does not matter if you are more technical. If you are able to land 1-2 big punches the fight changes instantly. Derrick Lewis by knockout is the best price for this fight. Derrick wins over 50% of his fights by knockout.