Data Scientist Previews 50/50 PFL 4 Fights

Raush Manfio vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

These two lightweight fighters are expected to make a big run in the PFL 2022 season. Let’s go over the numbers for these fighters.

Both fighters are undefeated in the PFL and looking to get into the playoffs. Raush Manfio is the underdog in this contest as always! Olivier is the favorite at -180. However, they have constantly underestimated Raush since his run in 2021.

Let’s look at the comparison graph below to help identify who will win this fight. This graph shows how each fighter does across multiple statistics, which might help us see who has an edge. In the graph, we see that Manfio has average takedown defense but shows solid accuracy on his total strike percentage. However, Olivier won’t go for the takedown. Raush is a slow starter, and Olivier has started off fast in 2022 with his first two rounds against Natan Schulte.

These fighters both have great records and can put up a good fight against anyone. This fight is going to make or break the possible champion this year. Our models projected Olivier to win it all year! Our Bayesian simulation model projects Manfio to be the better fighter 60% of the time with a risk of being wrong at 13%. I am going with our initial models’ selection of Olivier winning it all this year. Raush cannot keep starting off so slow and not have it bite him later. Olivier does well in the first few rounds, so it only makes sense this fight goes as a 29-28 decision win by Olivier.

Marthin Hamlet vs Josh Silveira

Each of these fighters used their takedown skills to get the win in PFL 1.

Marthin Hamlet has been a veteran for the PFL and Silveira is a rookie this season. Does experience play a role in this fight? I don’t think so at all. Both fighters have a good number of fights under their belt. Also, Hamlet is 3-2 overall and 0-1 as an underdog. Silveira has the respect of the sportsbooks even after only one fight in the PFL.

Silveira is projected to win based on the Bayesian Simulation, and it has about a 64% accuracy rate which is a profitable edge. I am interested to see what the models have to say, but it is going to come down to standup fighting. I don’t see Marthin Hamlet giving enough volume to keep Silveira at bay. Silveira delivered a knockdown and a submission win in dominant fashion. Silviera will win by knockout in the third round.