Everything you need to know for UFC 289: Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush

Get ready for an adrenaline-pumping showdown as we dive into another exhilarating main event: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon! Last week, we did accurately analyze Sterling vs. Cejudo giving you the best betting odds for each fighter. We’re back at it again, and we want to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, boasts an impressive 36-17 record with over 18.75U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We’re bringing the same winning formula, combining robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and of course, the best odds for each fighter.

Betting Stats:

Our fight models project a first-round knockout win for a fighter which should favor Charles Oliveira.

Here’s a breakdown of the percentages:

Decision: 28.07%
Knockout: 44.22%
Submission: 27.70%
Round 1: 38%
Round 2: 6%
Round 3: 7%
Round 4: 10%
Round 5: 18%
We’ve also compiled stats that showcase each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, helping you identify potential advantages.

Beneil Dariush is:

7-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
11-4 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-3 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
10-3 against fighters with 7 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
13-5 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
7-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
11-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
9-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
13-5 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
10-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
12-3 against fighters with 8 or more for Opp Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 7 or more for KnockDown Total.
1-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp KnockDown Total.
6-1 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
2-0 against fighters with 10 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
1-1 against fighters with 48 or more for Control Time.
1-1 against fighters with 203 or more for Total Time in Octagon.

Charles Oliveira is:

6-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
7-5 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
12-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
16-6 against fighters with 6 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-5 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
9-5 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
8-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
12-4 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
12-4 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
11-5 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
16-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
15-5 against fighters with 8 or more for Opp Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 7 or more for KnockDown Total.
4-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp KnockDown Total.
5-2 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
7-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
7-1 against fighters with 11 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
11-4 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Reversals.
3-0 against fighters with 76 or more for Control Time.
9-5 against fighters with 15 or more for Opp Control Time.
2-0 against fighters with 61 or more for Control Time Difference.
8-6 against fighters with 109 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
10-3 against fighters with 127 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
8-1 against fighters with 197 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
2-0 against fighters with 16 or more for Total Wins.

Statistical Modeling:

Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 51% sure that Cejudo is the better fighter, with a 14% risk of being wrong.

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 67% sure that Dariush is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 8%.

In our last predictions, the Bayesian Simulation predicted Cejudo (12-8).

We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Expected Winner for the Monte Carlo Simulation is Beneil Dariush (5-3)

I have created one more statistical testing model and it is bootstrap which should help us solve who wins or it might just be more confusion..

The bootstrap simulation predicts the likelihood of one fighter winning against another in a UFC match. It does this by using statistics like strikes landed per minute, takedown attempts per minute, knockdown rate, and submission rate for both fighters. The simulation runs 10,000 times, randomly generating statistics for each fighter based on their averages. These statistics are used to calculate a score for each fighter for each round of the match. The scores are tallied up over a specified number of rounds to determine the winner. The simulation generates a distribution of possible outcomes, estimating the probability of one fighter winning over the other. The results are displayed in a histogram plot, showing the frequency of different win percentages, with the mean win percentage shown as a red line. This simulation estimates the probability of one fighter winning over another based on their statistical averages, but it’s important to note that the actual outcome can be influenced by other factors like injuries, game plans, and performance on the day of the match.

With a 65.61% prediction accuracy, our Machine Learning Model foresees Charles Oliveira emerging as the victor.

Best Price for the Fight:

According to our analysis, Charles Oliveira is the best bet for this fight. He has the ability to make the fight chaotic and obviously has a strong chin but I think this fight is 50/50 and its based on just the price. You are getting more value with Charles because of the plus money. I truly don’t know who will win the fight but Ill be a lot happier winning 125 dollars or losing 100 over winning 100 or losing 145 dollars.