Everything you need to know for UFC 286: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

Get ready for an adrenaline-pumping showdown as we dive into another exhilarating main event: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon! Last week, we did accurately analyze Yadong vs. Simon, giving you the best betting odds for each fighter. We’re back at it again, and we want to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, boasts an impressive 36-16 record with over 19.75U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We’re bringing the same winning formula, combining robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and of course, the best odds for each fighter.

Betting Stats:

Aljamain Sterling has won 8 fights in a row.

Henry Cejudo has won 6 fights in a row.

Cejudo has finished 5 out of his last 6 fights since September 09, 2017. Cejudo is on a 4 fight knockout win streak.(Odds are at +350 for Cejudo to win by knockout) Cejudo has won 9 of his previous 11 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Cejudo’s reach is 64 inches; Sterling is 13-3 against Bantamweights with a reach of 64″ or more. Cejudo has won 5 of his last 6 fights via knockout. Odds are +350 for Cejudo to win by knockout. Cejudo in his last five fights averages 8 minutes in the octagon. Fighters with a reach of 71 inches such as Aljamain Sterling are 4-1 in the last 5 fights at Bantamweight. Sterling has a record of 11-3 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.

Our fight models project a second-round submission win for a fighter which should favor Henry Cejudo.

Here’s a breakdown of the percentages:

Decision: 12.25%
Knockout: 51.63%
Submission: 36.11%
Round 1: 0.6%
Round 2: 21.49%
Round 3: 14.04%
Round 4: 1.85%
Round 5: 41.00%
We’ve also compiled stats that showcase each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, helping you identify potential advantages.

Aljamain Sterling is:

5-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
7-1 against fighters with 10 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
6-1 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Body Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
4-0 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total.
4-0 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
6-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
2-0 against fighters with 33 or more for Control Time.
6-1 against fighters with 117 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
4-0 against fighters with 125 or more for Total Time in Octagon.

Henry Cejudo is:

4-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
5-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Reversals.
2-0 against fighters with 29 or more for Control Time Difference.
1-1 against fighters with 218 or more for Total Time in Octagon.

Statistical Modeling:

Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 51% sure that Cejudo is the better fighter, with a 14% risk of being wrong.

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 51% sure that Cejudo is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 11%.

In our last predictions, the Bayesian Simulation successfully foresaw Yadong (12-7).

We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Our model predicts that if the fight goes to a decision, Henry Cejudo will win four rounds. (5-2)

We are projecting in the monte carlo simulation model that Henry Cejudo will win all 5 rounds if it goes to a decision.

I have created one more statistical testing model and it is bootstrap which should help us solve who wins or it might just be more confusion..

The bootstrap simulation predicts the likelihood of one fighter winning against another in a UFC match. It does this by using statistics like strikes landed per minute, takedown attempts per minute, knockdown rate, and submission rate for both fighters. The simulation runs 10,000 times, randomly generating statistics for each fighter based on their averages. These statistics are used to calculate a score for each fighter for each round of the match. The scores are tallied up over a specified number of rounds to determine the winner. The simulation generates a distribution of possible outcomes, estimating the probability of one fighter winning over the other. The results are displayed in a histogram plot, showing the frequency of different win percentages, with the mean win percentage shown as a red line. This simulation estimates the probability of one fighter winning over another based on their statistical averages, but it’s important to note that the actual outcome can be influenced by other factors like injuries, game plans, and performance on the day of the match.

With a 66.22% prediction accuracy, our Machine Learning Model foresees Aljamain Sterling emerging as the victor.

Best Price for the Fight:

According to our analysis, Henry Cejudo is the best bet for this fight. He has the ability to make the fight chaotic and technical, and can dominate on the ground. While Aljamain Sterling may have an advantage in a technical standup fight, we believe Cejudo’s IQ and heart will ultimately lead him to victory. Our simulation models also support Cejudo as the winner. Overall, we recommend betting on Henry Cejudo for this fight.