Everything you need to know for Vettori vs. Dolidze

Last week, we broke down the Yan vs. Dvalishvili and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 34-14 with over 22.45U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Marvin Vettori suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Robert Whittaker but has won 4 of his last 6 fights. Roman Dolidze has won 4 fights in a row and has won 6 of his last 7 fights. Dolidze is on a 3 fight knockout win streak.(Odds are at +500 for Dolidze to win by knockout) Vettori’s reach is 74 inches; Dolidze is 3-1 against Middleweights with a reach of 74″ or more.Marvin Vettori is -250, which is more expensive than 76.9 % of his previous UFC fights (13 fights total).
Roman Dolidze is +210, which is cheaper than 100.0% of his previous UFC fights (7 fights total). Middleweights priced between -230 to -270 are 7-3 in the last 10 fights.(Marvin Vettori) Vettori in his last three fights averages 22 minutes in the octagon.
Dolidze in his last three fights averages 5 minutes in the octagon.
A fighter with similar odds of -230 to -270 and a reach of 74 inches is 8-2 in the last 10 fights(Marvin Vettori)

Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Usman. Also, our models project a submission in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.

Decision Percentage will be 0.2155348

Knockout Percentage will be 0.39061648

Submission Percentage will be 0.39384872

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.00062005734

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.17500521

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.82.0781637

Statistics

Marvin Vettori is:

5-4 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
6-4 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
4-4 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
6-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
5-2 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-2 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
2-4 against fighters with 21 or more for Control Time.
1-1 against fighters with 17 or more for Control Time Difference.
4-5 against fighters with 42 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
5-5 against fighters with 63 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
2-4 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.

Roman Dolidze is:

3-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
4-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Marvin Vettori 1000
Wins for Roman Dolidze 0

Two weeks ago, our statistical simulation predicted Merab (8-7) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Merab (10-5)

Added another statistical simulation model using Monte Carlo. It takes in a both fighters striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdown and submission per minute and number of rounds. Merab was the prediction last time around. (2-1)

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.75%. Its prediction for this fight is that Marvin Vettori will win.

Best Price for the Fight

Wow! I am not sure what to say honestly. I am surprised by so many statistical simulations having Marvin Vettori but the guy can fight. The price is just not justified though. I like Roman catching him with the hands in the fight. If Roman can keep his distance than I would prefer to choose Roman by knockout. However, I think this fight overall is extremely risky to bet on especially if the model has Vettori but with no edge because the sportsbook value him winning at too high of a long term price. Long story short I would not bet on this fight but if you need an answer it would be with Roman Dolidze because of its risk of 100 dollars to win double your money and some change.