Grant Emrick Breakdown for Your Way to Success

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

November 5, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (251-135-2) – 65% Correct

Main Event Record (21-11) – 66% Correct

Prelim Predictions:

WBW: Tamires Vidal (6-1) vs. Ramona Pascual (6-4)

  • Pick: Ramona Pascual

FLY: Carlos Candelario (8-2) vs. Jake Hadley (8-1)

  • Pick: Jake Hadley

BW: Liudvik Sholinian (9-3-1) vs. Johnny Munoz (11-2)

  • Pick: Johnny Munoz

WSTRAW: Polyana Viana (12-5) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (11-7)

  • Pick: Polyana Viana

BW: Mario Bautista (10-2) vs. Benito Lopez (10-1)

  • Pick: Mario Bautista *Lock of the Week*

WFLY: Miranda Maverick (12-4) vs. Shanna Young (9-5)

  • Pick: Miranda Maverick

FW: Darrick Minner (26-13) vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (38-10)

  • Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Main Card Predictions:

LW: Grant Dawson (18-1-1) vs. Mark Madsen (12-0)

  • Pick: Grant Dawson (-215)
  • Quick Reasoning: I’ll be honest, I don’t think Madsen is that good. A great olympic wrestler and MMA wrestler, absolutely. But in terms of striking and cardio for a full three rounds, this heavily favors Dawson. Both are well versed on the mat and has not suffered a loss thus far in the UFC, but I think the striking of Dawson should be able to outclass his opponent. Madsen has been outstruck in two of four fights in the promotion and I see that happening here as well en route to a UD victory for Dawson. 

FLY: Tagir Ulanbekov (13-2) vs. Nate Maness (14-2)

  • Pick: Nate Maness *Dawg of the Week* (+185)
  • Quick Reasoning: This might be more of a shot in the dark, but I think Maness can pull this one out. At flyweight – assuming he can cut down that far – Maness will have significant size and power attributes compared to a vast majority of opponents. Maness was mauled by Umar Nurmagomedov for three full rounds, but what else would you expect against someone who could be competing for the belt and probably fare well? It was a sacrifice and Maness was the lamb. Ulanbekov might shoot a lot of takedowns, but if Maness can defend a few and land his power shots on Tagir than this fight will be over. We saw Tim Elliot rock Ulanbekov early in their fight and I won’t be shocked if it happens again here. This is a dangerous underdog that’s moreso based on Maness getting a good shot on Tagir, so I understand the picks for Ulanbekov. Overall, I just believe Maness will have learned a thing or two from his fight with Nurmagomedov and will be able to perform much better against a lesser-talented grappler. Maness by TKO. 

HW: Chase Sherman (16-10) vs. Josh Parisian (15-5)

  • Pick: Chase Sherman (-130)
  • Quick Reasoning: There’s not many fights where I can pick Chase Sherman, but this is one of them. Both are near the bottom of the barrel in this division. Neither are impressive, but I’m going to give Sherman his flowers for beating Jared Vanderaa and Parisian for beating Alan Baudot. Congratulations heavyweights! In all seriousness, I just think Sherman has had the tougher opponents so far and that his striking is – slowly – starting to come along. I believe this fight will be on the feet and that Sherman can put up a decent enough performance against a slow-starting Parisian. Until I see more wins and promise from Parisian, I’m going to lean towards the more seasoned veteran in Sherman. Chase Sherman by TKO or UD, but this one might bust your parlays. 

WW: #13 Neil Magny (26-10) vs. #14 Daniel Rodriguez (17-2)

  • Pick: Neil Magny (-120)
  • Quick Reasoning: This may be recency bias but I didn’t like what I saw from Rodriguez in his last fight. He took a significant step up in competition and didn’t put on that positive of a performance against Li Jingliang. Magny didn’t do well against Shavkat Rakhmonov, but his opponent may genuinely be a long-term champion unless Chimaev gets in his way. I believe Magny’s size and reach will give D-Rod problems if this stays on the feet, which Magny will also be able to dictate. Rodriguez has an insane output of 7.75 strikes per minute, but this also makes him susceptible to over 5 strikes absorbed in this timespan as well. I love Rodriguez’ game, but if he hasn’t made too many improvements since his fight with Jingliang then he may be in trouble here. I wish this was a five round fight, but I’ll settle for three in what should go to a decision here. Give me the fighter with the tougher strength of schedule and 6” reach advantage in Magny to win by UD. 

WSTRAW: #3 Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) vs. #7 Amanda Lemos (12-2-1)

  • Pick: Marina Rodriguez (-215)
  • Quick Reasoning: Yeah, so Marina Rodriguez is pretty damn good. Sure, she may have had a super close fight with Yan Xionan in her last one, but they’re both arguably top of their class. I wish I could say the same about Lemos. She’s a beast that will chase the finish at any given opportunity, something that we don’t see too often from a majority of women’s fighters in the UFC. However, many of Lemos’ wins have come against some pretty low-level talent in the strawweight division. Until defeating Michelle Waterson-Gomez in her last bout, Angela Hill via split-decision was Lemos’ best win. We also have to worry for Lemos’ gas tank in a five-round fight, which has been suspect in fights such as the aformentioned one with Hill. I won’t go into metrics and all that jazz in this one, as they favor Rodriguez everywhere other than in takedowns, but even that is pretty minimal for Lemos. The fact of the matter is that if Lemos wins, it will be early and it will be emphatic. And if Rodriguez wins, it will be from breaking Lemos down as time continues by a late finish or clear UD. I think Rodriguez is too skilled to drop this fight early to Lemos, so I’m pretty confident siding with the latter to occur. I’m 4-1 when picking women’s main events (only loss was Holly Holm to Ketlen Vieira), so we will see if I can keep the ball rolling. 

Emrick’s Combat Sports Betting:

  • Straight Bets:
    • Dawg of the Week (8-8): Nate Maness ML
      • 0.5u
    • Lock of the Week (6-2): Mario Bautista ML
      • 3u
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