Data Scientist Previews 50/50 Fight

Last week, we broke down the Calvin vs. Arnold fight and provided insight to how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 26-11 with over 15.35U on these 50/50 fight picks. I will be breaking down this co main event in a similar fashion with good betting stats, statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Neil Magny suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Shavkat Rakhmonov but has won 5 of his last 7 fights. Daniel Rodriguez has won 4 fights in a row and has won 7 of his last 8 fights. Rodriguez has won 3 of his last 4 fights via decision. Odds are +250 for Rodriguez to win by decision. Magny has a record of 19-8 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.

Our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.

Decision Percentage will be 0.29226065

Knockout Percentage will be 0.4014444

Submission Percentage will be 0.30629492

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.032068286

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.14735787

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.34355605

Statistics

Neil Magny is 8-2 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
Neil Magny is 6-2 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total Difference
Neil Magny is 1-3 against fighters with 176 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
Neil Magny is 7-5 against fighters with 89 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
Neil Magny is 5-4 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Wins.

Daniel Rodriguez is 5-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 7-1 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 4-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 7-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 3-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 5-0 against fighters with 11 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
Daniel Rodriguez is 4-0 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
Daniel Rodriguez is 3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Reversals.

Showing how these fighters due at the odds given to them since 2011. Blue line is Daniel Rodriguez’s current odds. Red line is Neil Magny’s current odds.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Neil Magny 884
Wins for Daniel Rodriguez 116

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models, beforethecagedoorcloses is 78% sure that Arnold Allen is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 10%.

Last two weekends our statistical simulation predicted Oliveira and Kattar. Our Bayesian Simulation predicted Makhachev and Allen. It seems the pure statistics favor a Magny win, but the Bayes simulation is confident in Rodriguez.

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 63.16%. Its prediction for this fight is that Neil Magny will win.

Best Price for the Fight

Honestly, I think this fight is not going to be crazy competitive in my opinion. I think Rodriguez is insane with his volume. Check out the below graph.

This is a quality control chart. It shows you Daniel Rodriguez’s strikes per minute. He is absolutely smashing the upper limit in the UFC and average in the green.

After careful consideration, and reviewing Grant’s preview of the fight as well. Plus money or even money for Neil is where I am going. I would not go against the model or Grant this weekend. I would take him all the way up to -130. After that I would take Daniel due to the bayes simulation being very accurate. However, until the odds turn around to a heavy favorite for Daniel, I am going with Neil..