Last week, we broke down the Magny vs Rodriguez fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 26-11 with over 15.35U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good betting stats, statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Before we get started on the analytics, there should be some background on this main event. First, we want to show GLORY comparison stats for their kickboxing styles. Next, we’ll get into the thought process of the champion, Adesanya. Once we are all done with that, we will get into the typical analytical work.
GLORY kickboxing comparison first:
This graph shows they are similar in how they fight… but that Pereira is the more accurate striker in kickboxing. This does not mean much in the context of an mma fight unless nobody goes after a takedown. However, if this turns into a solely standup fight, this could be important.
Secondly, the mindset of the Adesanya is that he knows the 4 oz gloves, and he knows he has not won against Pereira. However, he may also feel he does not need to do so much to win this time around. As the champion, Israel will be able to be the patient counter striker he is and make Alex start the dance. The champion only has to not lose to retain their belt. I love that Pereira will have to start the dance because in his kickboxing/mma career, he has been on a steady diet of being the counter puncher. Will Adesanya be patient and let Pereira come to him for the belt? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
Israel Adesanya has won 3 fights in a row and has won 5 of his last 6 fights. Alex Pereira has won 3 fights in a row and has won 2 of his last 3 fights via knockout. Odds are +275 for Pereira to win by knockout. Middleweights priced between -185 to -225 are 10-0 in the last 10 fights (Israel Adesanya). Middleweights priced between 195 to 155 are 2-8 in the last 10 fights (Alex Pereira). A fighter with similar odds of -185 to -225 and a reach of 80 inches is 2-8 in the last 10 fights (Israel Adesanya).
Adesanya has a record of 11-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach, which Pereira does.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Alex. Both fighters will be extremely technical, but Izzy has to be a bit better at never getting touched. Adesanya has to land 20 more strikes than Alex Pereira does before he gets a knockdown on average. Also, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage is 0.1802591
Knockout Percentage is 0.60982496
Submission Percentage is 0.20991589
Round 1 Percentage is 0.012113048
Round 2 Percentage is 0.20159246
Round 3 Percentage is 0.349363
Round 4 Percentage is 0.0052042073
Round 5 Percentage is 0.0833375
Alex Pereira is:
2-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Control Time.
Israel Adesanya is:
2-0 against fighters with 11 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
4-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
7-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
9-1 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
6-1 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
5-0 against fighters with 72 or less for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
2-0 against fighters with 3 or less for Total Wins.
The two above stats are bolded because it shows Izzy has dealt with fighters with powerful punches before, and he deals with inexperienced fighters in the UFC pretty well, too.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Israel Adesanya: 248
Wins for Alex Pereira: 752
Last weekend, our statistical simulation predicted Magny (1-3) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Rodriguez (3-1) It seems the pure statistical simulation favors a Periera win, but the Bayes simulation is confident in Adesanya
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 64.34%. Its prediction for this fight is that Alex Periera will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The best price for this fight is going with Alex, no matter what. Statistical Simulation or machine learning models going with Alex does not matter. The price has gone so far over to Israel at -200 or more. You are telling me he is going to win the fight 67% of the time? Get out of here with that price. I don’t disagree that he will likely win this fight, but the best price for this fight is Pereira and that is what this section is all about. You have no idea whether or not Adesanya will grapple, and if he does not grapple then his odds should be more like -110. Pereira at +175 is huge edge and the best price unless Adesanya drops down to -175 which is not happening. Pereira is the way to go until he is less than +150. Again, this is purely best price for your risk.