UFC Fight Prediction: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon - Analyzing Betting Odds and Performance Insights

Get ready for an adrenaline-pumping showdown as we dive into another exhilarating main event: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon! A few weeks ago, we did not accurately analyze Adesanya vs. Pereira, giving you the best betting odds for each fighter. We’re back at it again, and we want to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, boasts an impressive 35-16 record with over 18.55U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We’re bringing the same winning formula, combining robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and of course, the best odds for each fighter.

Betting Stats:

Ricky Simon has won 5 fights in a row and has won 4 of his last 4 fights. Yadong has won 6 of his previous 8 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Yadong’s reach is 67 inches; Simon is 5-2 against Bantamweights with a reach of 67″ or more. Song Yadong is +100, which is cheaper than 81.8 % of his previous UFC fights (11 fights total).Yadong in his last three fights averages 9 minutes in the octagon.
Simon has a record of 6-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.

Our fight models project a second-round submission win for a fighter which should favor Ricky Simon.

Here’s a breakdown of the percentages:

Decision: 11.23%
Knockout: 36.52%
Submission: 52.24%
Round 1: 1.3%
Round 2: 26.7%
Round 3: 22.5%
Round 4: 18.9%
Round 5: 2.64%
We’ve also compiled stats that showcase each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, helping you identify potential advantages.

Song Yadong is:

7-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
8-2 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
6-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
6-2 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
7-2 against fighters with 4 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
6-2 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
4-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp KnockDown Total.
1-1 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
2-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
2-1 against fighters with 87 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
2-1 against fighters with 115 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
1-1 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Wins.

Ricky Simon is:
1-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
0-2 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total.
5-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
2-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Reversals.
4-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Control Time.
3-1 against fighters with 119 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
2-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Wins.

Statistical Modeling:

After simulating 1000 fights, our statistical simulation predicts 933 wins for Song Yadon and 67 wins for Ricky Simon. Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 60% sure that Pereira is the better fighter, with a 14% risk of being wrong.

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 54% sure that Yadong is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 12%.

In our last predictions, the statistical simulation accurately predicted Periera (9-9), while the Bayesian Simulation successfully foresaw Pereira (11-7).

We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Our model predicts that if the fight goes to a decision, Alex Pereira will win four rounds. (4-2)

We are projecting in the monte carlo simulation model that Song Yadong will win fours rounds if it goes to a decision.

With a 66.22% prediction accuracy, our Machine Learning Model foresees Song Yadong emerging as the victor.

Best Price for the Fight:

Our money’s on Yadong – the stats, models, and machine learning model all predict his victory. While we commend Simon if he manages to win, the smart bet is on the plus money with Yadong. Place your bets, grab a slice of pizza, and get ready for a thrilling night of action!