Let’s go through some bets this weekend for that pizza money! We always want to provide more opportunities of edge for the viewers.
Font vs. Vera
Vera has finished 5 out of his last 8 fights since March 23, 2019. Font has finished 2 out of his last 8 fights since October 28, 2017. Font is due for a finish. Our models are projecting this fight to have a finish. This fight not going the distance is +110 right now, and our model is about 52% accurate on distance fights. Font just fought a great fighter in Aldo. Secondly, Vera has never fought in a five-round fight. Lastly, our models and stats are saying it is more than likely it will happen. We take this fight at +110 to not go the distance.
Arlovski vs. Collier
Heavyweight fights end in a finish 71.34% of the time… this fight to NOT go the distance is currently +130. A fighter with similar odds of -125 to -165 and a reach of 77 inches is 9-1 in the last 10 fights. This fits Arlovski.
Arlovski has won 0 of his last 9 fights via knockout. Odds are +400 for Arlovski to win by knockout. This guy is due for a finish this weekend. We pick this fight to not go the distance at +130. Pick up the phone and call that pizza place because Arlovski by knockout at +400 is happening.
Gordon vs. Dawson
Dawson has finished 1 out of his last 3 fights since July 18, 2020. Lightweights priced between -160 to -200 are 8-2 in the last 10 fights. This fits Dawson. we are showing huge edge for Dawson to win this by fight by decision! Put your pizza delivery fee from your local shop on Dawson by decision for +140.
Daniel Lacerda (Da Silva) vs Francisco Figueiredo
Out of a combined 3 fights, the fighters have reached a decision 2 times.
There is a 66.7% chance this fight goes the entire 3 rounds.
DraftKings has odds of +100 for this fight to go the distance.
Natan Levy vs Mike Breeden
Lightweights priced between -175 to -215 are 8-2 in the last 10 fights. This fits Levy. we are showing huge edge in this fight with over 10 percent coverage. Natan Levy is our straight pick for the Pizza Money! It is too much edge to pass it up.