Everything you need to know for UFC 294: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

In the world of mixed martial arts, the clash between two formidable contenders, Alexander Volkanovski and Islam Makhachev, has captured the attention of fight enthusiasts and analysts alike. Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, brings an impressive track record, boasting a 36-17 record with over 18.75U on 50/50 and main event fight picks. Here at BCDC, we’ve harnessed the same winning formula that combines robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and, of course, the best odds for each fighter.

As we delve into the betting statistics, our fight models project a third-round knockout win for one of the fighters, indicating an advantage for Volkanovski, who excels in the stand-up game. To provide further insights, we’ve broken down the probabilities: Decision (21%), Knockout (72%), and Submission (7%), along with the likelihood of different rounds.

In addition to the numbers, we’ve compiled statistics highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, aiding you in identifying potential advantages. Islam Makhachev has an impressive record against fighters with various attributes, while Alexander Volkanovski has showcased his prowess in multiple aspects of the game.

Islam Makhachev is:

2-0 against fighters with 11 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 6 or more for KnockDown Total.
3-0 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
9-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
9-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
4-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Reversals.
2-0 against fighters with 52 or more for Control Time.
3-0 against fighters with 251 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
2-0 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Wins.

Alexander Volkanovski is:

12-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
10-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
10-1 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
13-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
8-1 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total.
5-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp KnockDown Total.
2-1 against fighters with 10 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
1-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
1-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Reversals.
10-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Opp Control Time.
6-1 against fighters with 141 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
4-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Wins.

Statistical Modeling:

Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 50% sure that Volkanovski is the better fighter, with a 9% risk of being wrong.

In our last predictions, the Bayesian Simulation predicted Cejudo (12-8).

We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Expected Winner for the Monte Carlo Simulation is Alexander Volkanovski (5-3)

I have created one more statistical testing model and it is bootstrap which should help us solve who wins or it might just be more confusion..

The bootstrap simulation predicts the likelihood of one fighter winning against another in a UFC match. It does this by using statistics like strikes landed per minute, takedown attempts per minute, knockdown rate, and submission rate for both fighters. The simulation runs 10,000 times, randomly generating statistics for each fighter based on their averages. These statistics are used to calculate a score for each fighter for each round of the match. The scores are tallied up over a specified number of rounds to determine the winner. The simulation generates a distribution of possible outcomes, estimating the probability of one fighter winning over the other. The results are displayed in a histogram plot, showing the frequency of different win percentages, with the mean win percentage shown as a red line. This simulation estimates the probability of one fighter winning over another based on their statistical averages, but it’s important to note that the actual outcome can be influenced by other factors like injuries, game plans, and performance on the day of the match.

With a prediction accuracy of 65.15%, our Machine Learning Model anticipates Islam Makhachev emerging as the victor.

Best Bet for the Fight:

Based on our analysis, Alexander Volkanovski appears to be the most promising choice for this fight. He possesses the potential to turn it into a grueling cardio battle. Notably, he is the first fighter in MMA history to receive a second opportunity to face Islam Makhachev or Khabib Nurmagomedov. It will be intriguing to witness how both fighters make adjustments, especially now that Alex has experienced the strength of Islam’s takedowns. Does Alex hold an advantage? Or does Islam’s corner support from Khabib provide him with an edge, along with a better understanding of Volkanovski’s capabilities? Personally, the most attractive money line bet seems to be on Volkanovski, given his odds at +225, making it an appealing value proposition.

My personal choice is Islam Makhachev and my reason behind is whoever the best grappler is will win more fights usually and I am not going against the models. I personally would pick Islam and I will risk the -278 to win 100 for the hypothetical purpose of the blog to keep a record count.