UFC FIGHT NIGHT 202 Analysis

Main Event Preview:

Thank goodness Bobby Green stepped up to keep this fight on the card this weekend. Islam Makhachev is one of the best fighters in UFC and the best Lightweight. It’s not even close.  In his twelve UFC fights, Makhachev averages a score of 3 in dominance. Bobby Green averages a 1.53 dominance score.

The sportsbooks love Makhachev this weekend with his odds at -800 or more. I do not suspect this value to get any lower than -700 by Saturday. BCDC ranks him as the #3 lightweight in the UFC, and his ranking will only get better with a dominant performance. I cannot see Bobby Green having a punching chance for this fight. I may eat my words, but I’m okay with that possibility.  I do not suggest betting on the Moneyline… but if you want money, then go check out the BCDC Pizza Money Picks for what to do with Makhachev. Fighters in Bobby Green’s circumstances (with odds of +570 to +530) are 0-7 in the last 7 fights.

Featured Fight for BCDC: 

Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

I used a Bayesian Simulation to show I am 60% sure that Terrance McKinney is the better fighter. The risk of being wrong is 24%.  McKinney has strong power, and I do not see a fight where Ziam picks him apart.

Our simulation model is projecting a 10% edge on this fight, so I am going to roll with McKinney. Ziam has a takedown defense of ~70%, which is not very good. In a sample size of 561 since 1993, fighters who have a takedown defense of roughly 70-75% win only 49% of their fights. I have models projecting this to be a ground fight, so I see McKinney winning this fight by either his power in a first-round knockout or his wrestling skills for a 3 round UD.

Final Featured Fight for BCDC:  

Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez

This could be a live underdog. Perez has won 6 of his previous 8 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach, which gives a 75% chance of Perez winning. With a line of +215, sportsbooks give him roughly a 31% chance of winning. This Perez stat is showing a solid 44% edge

Our Bayesian Simulation model projects Perez as the better fighter at 58% with the risk of being wrong at 13%. This shows another 17% edge

I ran a simulation of this fight 10,000 times (see x axis) with the price of the fighters and their chance to win the fight against each other with their odds price. Perez has a chance of getting about 1.2 times his money, where Martinez is priced so high at roughly -240 that he will only win 0.6 times his money in 10,000 fights! In simpler terms, Perez will not win all the time, but Perez has enough of a chance to win that it is well worth the bet… especially when compared to Martinez who will not pay you off as well in the long run.

Our Bayesian Simulation and Markov Chain Simulation show it is best to bet on Alejandro Perez due to his price and winning percentage against opponents with a longer reach. Perez has won 67% of his fights as an underdog, too. 

I also ran a machine learning model projecting the type of fight this will be on Saturday. I am projecting this to a be a standup fight on Saturday. Bantamweight fights end in a finish 51.33% of the time, and sportsbooks have +110 odds of this fight NOT going the distance. I would select Alejandro Perez to win. It may be best to wait and see what BCDC machine learning models pick due to the success they have. The BCDC machine learning models recent 29 picks have ~69% accuracy. 

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