Normalized Win % vs. Win %
Does the sports bettor you follow have a high win percentage on their bets? Do you have a high win percentage but don’t know why you’re not making more money? I was in your shoes before, and then I finally stumbled upon something called the Normalized Win Percentage. The book called ‘Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting’ showed me that to calculate your real edge, you need to make sure you calculate the Normalized Win Percentage of your strategy.
Do you ever wonder where those sports betting vanish to after having an 80% accuracy and making so much money?
Hey, maybe they made so much money, they retired! But don’t be nervous; these “professionals” most likely did not know what win percentage calculation would help them understand their bets a bit more and last longer in the sports betting markets.
Win % Calculations
Your standard winning percentage calculation is as follows:
If you want to know when you (or a bettor you follow) has a legitimate edge, then start calculating your NORMALIZED WIN %. This is calculated using the formula below:
Units won/(Units won + Units lost)
Now, if you are calculating this already, then maybe this is just an excellent reminder for you to keep up the good work. If this is the first time you have seen this, then great! I was in your shoes before, and I will keep sharing why this is so critical for anyone to have a real edge.
Why is a normalized win percentage so significant?
The prices at which people bet vary! A sports bettor betting money line favorites may have a significant winning percentage, yet be a losing player when it comes to earnings. Plenty of bettors claim they hit 60% or more, but without including your money line, it is not worth much.
I make 5 bets that include the following: ( -140,+120,-175,+105, -180)(risking 140 to win 100 or risking 100 to 120). Let’s say, for this example, I win the bold bets!
My Win Percentage is going to be 3 wins out of 5 bets, making me a 60% winner! However, if I calculate my Normalized Win Percentage, this 60% Win Percentage does not look as impressive.
Let’s calculate the Normalized Win Percentage:
Units Won(100+100+105)/ [Units Won(100+100+105)+Units Lost(+100+180]
The Normalized Win Percentage comes out to 52.14%, and this is below the break-even for a sports book (52.4%). If you follow this betting strategy long enough, it could be detrimental to your bankroll. Remember, a major rule in sports betting is to know your edge. If you do not know your advantage, your money will run out the door quickly!
Normalized Win Percentage is a return on investment (ROI) calculation made into a metric for winning. Email us, and we will share our example spreadsheet with you to help you keep track of your bets!
Thanks for checking out this blog post! I will be posting more information on sports betting issues, sports betting statistics, and data.