Are UFC fights predictable with machine learning?

UFC fights are predictable, but this is contingent on having the right system and strategy. In this post, I will go over two strategic rules you should follow if you want to have a successful strategy. First, we need to share some common misconceptions about martial arts gambling.  If you haven’t already, please read my blog about Normalized Win Percentages, which will share with you the best way to track your winning percentage. Along with the misconception of winning percentages, people will tell you that 60% is not enough because you are still getting 4 out of 10 wrong. I am here to say that, with the right system, you can make a 60% Normalized Win Percentage become a money-making model with the following rules!

Rules

  1. Know your Edge
    1. If you overestimate your edge, your capital is at significant risk.
  2. Risk Management
    1. Money management is the method of allocating capital towards available opportunities. 
    2. Pursue a flat betting percentage (such as a 1 % bet) of your account’s capital until you understand your edge over at least 100 fights for the year. This low betting percentage will help you not lose excessive amounts of money over just a few months. 
  3. Law of Large Numbers
    1. The Law of Large Numbers(LLN) is a theorem describing the result of performing the same experiment many, many times. According to this law, the average of the results obtained from many trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become more relative to the expected value as more trials are performed.
  4. Do not switch your models consistently!
    1. I learned this the hard way! I would switch my model anytime it had a bad week or two. However, with good money management and knowing my edge, my system would have big weekends! And when my model didn’t have a great weekend, it wouldn’t severely impact my account’s capital.

If you take anything away from this post, it should be to understand your edge! If you do not have trials to understand your system, its flaws, and its benefits through historical and live testing, you will fail. Lower-risk bets will help you grow your account in the long run if you have around a 60% Normalized Win Percentage. Every sports bettor needs to have the discipline to follow these rules, and this is what separates the amateurs from the professionals.

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