Grant Emrick Previews UFC 275

UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka

June 11, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (112-58) – 66% Correct

Early Prelim Predictions:

WFW: Ramona Pascual (6-3) vs. Joselyne Edwards (10-4)

  • Pick: Joselyne Edwards

WSTRAW: Liang Na (19-5) vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (10-4)

  • Pick: Liang Na

BW: Kyung-ho Kang (17-9, 1 NC) vs. Batgerel Danaa (12-3)

  • Pick: Batgerel Danaa

Prelim Predictions:

WW: Andre Fialho (16-4, 1 NC) vs. Jake Matthews (17-5)

  • Pick: Andre Fialho
  • UPDATES: Fight moved to main card in replacement of Bontorin/Kape

LW: Hayisaer Maheshate (8-1) vs. Steve Garcia (12-4)

  • Pick: Steve Garcia

FW: Seung-Woo Choi (10-4) vs. Joshua Culibao (9-1-1)

  • Pick: Seung-Woo Choi

MW: BCDC #9 Brendan Allen (18-5) vs. Jacob Malkoun (6-1)

  • Pick: Brendan Allen

MMA News

Main Card Predictions:

WW: Jack Della Maddalena (11-2) vs. Ramazan Emeev (20-5)

  • Pick: Jack Della Maddalena (-160)
  • Quick Reasoning: After a stellar DWCS performance and his UFC debut, JDM is already one of the crispest strikers in the welterweight division, let alone the entire UFC. But dear god, how will he handle Emeev, who averages nearly 8 takedown attempts per fight? By introducing his hands to Emeev early, JDM’s opponent will be quick to resort to his bread and butter of the ground game. But the slickness of Della Maddalena should prevail. He managed to avoid 3 of 4 takedowns, a scary submission attempt, and even had some nice scramble moments during his DWCS win over Ange Loosa. Emeev is a much better grappler than Loosa, but how good is Emeev? Only 1 of 5 opponents Emeev holds victory over is still in the UFC, which is none other than the somehow still signed Sam Alvey, who he beat in 2017. All I think I needed to see was Sam Alvey to make up my mind, gross. Give me JDM by KO in the first two rounds. Meanwhile, I’ll be praying this doesn’t become a painful to watch lay and pray performance by Emeev. 

FLY: BCDC #9 Rogerio Bontorin (16-4, 2 NC) vs. UFC #14 Manel Kape (17-6)

  • Pick: Manel Kape (-230)
  • Quick Reasoning: Speaking of great striking, former Rizin champion Manel Kape has put the flyweight division on notice. Barring a blasphemous decision in his fight with Matheus Nicolau, Kape should be 3-1 with his eyes set on the top ten of the division. This is the fight that gets him closer to that. Bontorin has dropped 3 of 4, with one win over Matt Schnell being overturned to a no contest. He’s known to be lethal with his ground attack, taking control of opponents round after round. But, considering the recent judging emphasis on effective striking and damage accumulated, holding Kape down won’t mean as much unless the damage comes with it. Plus, Kape has a takedown defense rate of 80%, much of which was gained by holding Nicolau to 2 of 9 takedowns landed. Bontorin lands about 50% of takedown attempts, compared to Nicolau’s 41%, so it could prove a little more tricky with Bontorin’s pressure. However, I believe in momentum and see Kape trending upwards as Bontorin is on a slippery slope. I don’t think there is too much value in these odds, but Kape should get the win here. 
  • UPDATE: Canceled due to Bontorin weight cut health issues, will be replaced by Fialho/Matthews

WSTRAW: BCDC #9 Weili Zhang (21-3) vs. BCDC #8 Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4)

  • Pick: Weili Zhang (-165)
  • Quick Reasoning: Periods of inactivity are always a cause for concern, especially with a dangerous opponent in Zhang. Yes, Weili lost both of her fights since the classic bout with Joanna in early 2020, but the second fight with Namajunas showed off her variety of high-level talent. Personally, I had bet on Rose to win that fight, but I was thoroughly convinced Weili beat Rose after five rounds. With a three round fight, expect to see explosiveness and desperation every step of the way by Weili who’s eager to reclaim the title she believes is hers. For Joanna, she was able to stuff 7 of 8 takedown attempts by Zhang in their first fight and forced a high-level striking battle between the two. I’d say Joanna has a slight advantage, perhaps a toss-up, on the feet; but if Zhang can force some clinch positions and can hold Joanna down to deal damage, that’ll be the x-factor of this fight. I love activity and I like Weili to take 2 of 3 rounds in what could be another top-tier women’s MMA fight. 

WFLY: BCDC #1 Valentina Shevchenko (22-3) vs. UFC #4 Taila Santos (19-1)

  • Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (-625)
  • Quick Reasoning: Santos is very talented, but Shevchenko has been making a pretty strong case to be the MMA GWOAT. All I have to say is this: Six title defenses compared to an opponent who earned a title shot off of Joanne Wood and Roxanne Modafferi, who both lost 4 of their last 5. Cool…And still. 

LHW: BCDC #2 Glover Teixeira (33-7) vs. BCDC #1 Jiri Prochazka (28-3-1)

  • Pick: Jiri Prochazka (-200)
  • Quick Reasoning: A 42 year old champion is impressive by itself, but defending that title against a 29 year old former Rizin champion and berzerker in Prochazka is legendary. With Jiri’s power and metrics – 4” reach and 1” height advantage – it’s tough seeing him let Glover get close and attempt to enter the clinch. But this should be Teixeira’s game plan, as Jiri’s abilities on the ground are far outmatched by Glover’s, running the risk of submission threats. On the feet, this is surely Jiri’s, while on the mat it is Glover’s fight to win. I just don’t see Glover surviving on the feet, but this fight could genuinely go either way. With Jiri’s kill or be killed mentality, highlighted by 30 of his 32 fights ending via finish, I believe the best strategy is to use his youthful speed and aggressiveness and go for the finish early before risking Glover taking control. I’m seeing a 1st or 2nd round KO for Jiri, but an early submission for Glover isn’t unlikely. With that said, and new. 

Emrick’s Combat Sports Betting (-1.988u):

  • Parlays:
    • Portuguese Power: Fialho and Kape to win
      • 1u to win 0.746u
    • Weili/Joanna Over 1 Round, Shevchenko ML, Teixeira/Prochazka Under 3.5 Rounds
      • 1u to win 0.843u
    • Shevchenko ML, Teixeira/Prochazka DNGTD
      • 2.8u to win 1.045u
  • Straight Bets:
    • Edwards ML
      • 0.5u to win 0.303u
    • Liang ML
      • 0.5u to win 0.525u
    • Brendan Allen by Submission or Decision
      • 0.5u to win 0.415u
    • Steve Garcia by KO/TKO or Decision
      • 0.3u to win 0.324u
    • Della Maddalena ML
      • 1u to win 0.570u
    • Danaa ML
      • 1u to win 0.670u
    • Zhang ML
      • 4u to win 2.280u
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