BCDC Analyst UFC Fight Night Preview

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic

May 14, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (90-45)

Prelim Predictions:

MW: Nick Maximov (8-0) vs. Andre Petroski (7-2)

  • Pick: Nick Maximov

FLY: Tatsuro Taira (10-0) vs. Carlos Candelario (8-1)

  • Pick: Tatsuro Taira

WSTRAW: #12 Virna Jandiroba (17-3) vs. #13 Angela Hill (13-11)

  • Pick: Virna Jandiroba

LW: Michael Johnson (20-17) vs. Alan Patrick (15-3, 1 NC)

  • Pick: Alan Patrick

WFLY: BCDC #3 Viviane Araujo (10-3) vs. #9 Andrea Lee (13-5)

  • Pick: Andrea Lee


Main Card Predictions:

FLY: Jake Hadley (8-0) vs. Allan Nascimento (18-6)

  • Pick: Jake Hadley (-220)
  • Quick Reasoning: Against UFC opponents, Raulian Paiva and Tugar Ulanbekov, Nascimento has given of 5 of 6 takedown attempts. It just so happens to be that Hadley is a slick submission artist who has excellent ground game and can beat you on the feet as well. Although Nascimento has had these UFC-level defeats via split-decision, Hadley is a great prospect as a former Cage Warriors champion that should ride a strong wave into a submission or decision victory in his debut this Saturday.

LW: Frank Camacho (22-9) vs. Manuel Torres (12-2)

  • Pick: Manuel Torres (-125)
  • Quick Reasoning: Nothing against Camacho, but there’s just too many red flags for me to back him in this fight. The 2-5 UFC record may stick out like a sore thumb, but a majority of Camacho’s losses have come from notable ranked players such as Beneil Dariush, Geoff Neal, Li Jingliang. He’s been finished in 3 of his past 4 fights, which is a notable red flag. The other one, which is extremely unfortunate, is that it is Camacho’s first fight since suffering neck inuries in a car pileup last summer. While I hope he has made a full recovery, I’m erring on the side of caution and siding with Torres based on the recent defeats and health setbacks. I do like Torres’ ability on the feet and mat, as he can finish his opponents with a balanced attackhaving 5 victories by TKO and 6 by submission. He had a great showing via TKO in his DWCS performance, which I believe will lead to another early round finish in his UFC debut. 

WFLY: #1 Katlyn Chookagian (17-4) vs. BCDC WSTRAW #5 Amanda Ribas (11-2)

  • Pick: Katlyn Chookagian (-180)
  • Quick Reasoning: The size advantage of Chookagian is too great for me to look past. Ribas is taking this fight at a higher weigh class this time around. Not only is Ribas moving up from the #9 strawweight spot, she’s facing the #1 contender in the women’s flyweight division in Chookagian. I don’t like this high of a jump for a fighter that has been in the UFC for a few years and has experienced some issues getting rocked at times by strikers. Chookagian, a mostly decision/point fighter, should be able to use her 6” height and 2” reach advantage to keep Ribas at bay and outstrike her on the feet. Ribas averages nearly 2 takedowns per fight, but Chookagian will not have as much difficulty against a smaller fighter and should use her strength to defend Ribas’ attempts at control. I see this fight ending with a TKO or unanimous decision in favor of Chookagian.

BW: Davey Grant (13-6) vs. Louis Smolka (17-8)

  • Pick: Davey Grant (-300)

LHW: BCDC #8 Ryan Spann (19-7) vs.  Ion Cutelaba (16-6-1, 1 NC)

  • Pick: Ion Cutelaba (-220)

LHW: #1 Jan Blachowicz (28-9) vs. BCDC #5 Aleksandar Rakic (14-2)

  • Pick: Aleksandar Rakic (-195)

What Emrick’s Betting (+1.406u):

  • Parlays:
    • Rakic to Win and Over 1.5 Rounds
      • 1u to win 0.833u
    • Taira, Maximov, Grant ML’s
      • 0.5u to win 0.7u
    • Hill, Chookagian, Grant ML’s
      • 0.3u to win 1.393u
  • Straight Bets:
    • Chookagian ML
      • 2u to win 1.135u
    • Hadley ML
      • 1.2u to win 0.546u
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