Grant Emrick Previews UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan

October 1, 2022

Emrick’s UFC Fighter Pick Record (220-121-2) – 65% Correct

Prelim Predictions:

BW: Guido Cannetti (9-7) vs. Randy Costa (6-3)

CW: Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-2) vs. Chelsea Chandler (4-1)

LHW: Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) vs. Philipe Lins (15-5)

MW: Krzysztof Jotko (24-5) vs. Brendan Allen (19-5)

LW: Joaquim Silva (11-4) vs. Jesse Ronson (21-11, 1 NC)

WSTRAW: #15 Jessica Penne (14-7) vs. Tabatha Ricci (7-1)

HW: Ilir Latifi (16-8, 1 NC) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (60-16-1)

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Main Card Predictions:

LW: Mike Davis (9-2) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (6-2)

Quick Reasoning: With Borschchev’s porous takedown defense and Davis’ ability to mix it up and get takedowns when necessary, this is a fight where I heavily favor Davis. Although both are solid strikers, I think Davis has more paths to victory and will take this by late-round KO or UD.

CW: John Castaneda (19-5) vs. Daniel Santos (8-2)

Quick Reasoning: Castaneda is just the better fighter overall in this one. Higher quality opponents and victories, a victory over previously 4-1 – in the UFC – Miles Johns, and only one loss in the UFC coming from – now FW – Nathaniel Wood should place potentially ranked-fighter ready Castaneda in the win column come Saturday.

FW: #12 Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) vs. Don Shainis (12-3)

Quick Reasoning: Yusuff should have no issue putting away the UFC newcomer in Don Shainis away come Saturday. By far, Yusuff is the better fighter in terms of striking and ability to keep the fight on the feet against grapplers. At 6-1 in the promotion with the lone loss coming against Arnold Allen in a close UD, Yusuff won’t gain much from winning this bout, but he will hold his ranked spot in the FW division.

BW: Raoni Barcelos (16-3) vs. Trevin Jones (13-8, 1 NC)

Quick Reasoning: Although he’s looked rough in his last two fights, Barcelos is the more proven fighter at this point in the UFC. Barcelos can attack Jones on the feet or the ground, while Jones offers up fairly dangerous KO power. Overall, I think Barcelos can avoid Jones’ power and pick him apart by mixing up his game. Stat to know in this: Barcelos is 4-1 in his UFC fights where he lands at least one takedown. I think draining on the power and energy of Jones on the ground will be a good gameplan for Barcelos to earn a victory Saturday.

WW: Randy Brown (15-4) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (28-8)

Quick Reasoning: Trinaldo has looked pretty impressive for a 44 year old fighter at this stage of his career. A near resurgence has led him to win 5 of his last 6 in the promotion, as well as impressive victories over Jai Herbert and Danny Roberts in that span. However, I think “Rudeboy” Randy Brown is going to be too much for Trinaldo come fight night. Brown will come into this fight at a monstrous size with a 6” height and 8” reach advantage over Trinaldo, along with a close SD over Khaos Williams in his last bout. I love this fight because Brown’s chin has been suspect in some of his fights, but I see the younger fighter – by 12 years – in Brown getting his hand raised at the end of the night due to his striking volume and astronomical size.

WSTRAW: #5 Mackenzie Dern (12-2) vs. #6 Yan Xiaonan (15-3, 1 NC)

Quick Reasoning: I’ve been flip-flopping on this pick the entire week, but I think I have to go with Xiaonan to get this done due to the greater paths to victory she can come up with. Dern’s striking just isn’t great enough to compete with the elites of the WSTRAW division. She’s posting 3.16 strikes against 4.35 strikes absorbed per minute, whereas Xiaonan dishes out 5.66 strikes and is hit 3.77 times during the same timespan. Dern is easily better on the ground in terms of submissions and jiu-jitsu, but those opportunities will shrink the longer this fight goes on and the fighters exhaust more energy and become increasingly slippery. Pair that with a 9% takedown accuracy for Dern and you have a tough path to victory for the Brazilian. At the risk of adding some MMA math to this equation, both fighters have faced Marina Rodriguez. Xiaonan had some arguments to claim victory in the SD loss to Rodriguez, while Dern won only 1 of 5 rounds in their main event just under a year ago. If Xiaonan’s hands can keep up their output and also stay off the ground with Dern, then I’d say the odds heavily favor her to win this. I’m still keeping my Ricci and Dern parlay – for devious reasons – but I’d side witht the underdog in this main event with the blinders off (or technically on). Show me the dawg in Xiaonan to get it done by UD or late-round KO.

Emrick’s Combat Sports Betting:

Straight Bets:
- Dawg of the Week (5-7): Aleksei Oleinik ML
  - 0.5u to win 0.7u
- Lock of the Week (4-0): John Castaneda ML
  - 2.5u to win 1.315u
Parlay Bet:
- The “You Know Why” Parlay: Ricci and Dern ML’s
  - 0.5u to win 0.559u