Last week, we broke down the Charles vs Islam fight and provided insight to how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 25-11 with over 14.35U on these 50/50 fight picks. I will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good betting stats, statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Arnold Allen has won 9 fights in a row. Allen has won his previous 6 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Allen has won 4 of his last 5 fights via decision. Odds are +240 for Allen to win by decision.
Allen’s reach is 70 inches, and Kattar is 6-3 against Featherweights with a reach of 70″ or more. In his last three fights, Kattar averages 25 minutes in the octagon.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight which should favor Kattar. Secondly, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.24983653
Knockout Percentage will be 0.4487115
Submission Percentage will be 0.30145198
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.0002096697
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.19273871
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.4479752
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.006810056
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.012374388
Arnold Allen is 3-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
Arnold Allen is 9-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Control Time.
Arnold Allen is 4-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Control Time Difference.
Arnold Allen is 2-0 against fighters with 171 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
Arnold Allen is 2-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Wins.
Calvin Kattar is 6-4 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 6-4 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 2-3 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 4-4 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 7-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 6-4 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
Calvin Kattar is 3-2 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total.
Calvin Kattar is 3-2 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
Calvin Kattar is 2-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
Calvin Kattar is 2-1 against fighters with 19 or more for Control Time.
Calvin Kattar is 3-1 against fighters with 129 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
Calvin Kattar is 2-2 against fighters with 116 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
Calvin Kattar is 2-2 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Wins.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Calvin Kattar: 988
Wins for Arnold Allen: 12
Last weekend our statistical simulation predicted Oliveira and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Makhachev. It seems the pure statistics favor a Calvin win, but the Bayes simulation is confident in Allen.
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 63.98%. Its prediction for this fight is that Arnold Allen will win.
Best Price for the Fight
Honestly, I think this fight is going to be crazy competitive and the statistics support that. I personally don’t see Kattar getting taken down. The featherweight division is not known for high level offensive grappling. However, Allen has shown great mma standup, and I do believe he will squeak out the win with a solid performance. Allen at -110 is a solid edge bet. Personally, I would grab him all the way up to -130. If he goes higher than -130, then I would go after Kattar for the better edge. As long as Allen is the aggressor in the exchanges and gets Kattar to believe grappling exchanges will happen, it will help in the long 25-minute fight.