Last month, we broke down the Strickland vs. Cannonier and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 29-12 with over 18.6U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Sean Strickland suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Jared Cannonier but has won 7 of his last 10 fights. Nassourdine Imavov has won 3 fights in a row and has won 4 of his last 5 fights. Imavov’s reach is 75 inches; Strickland is 5-2 against Middleweights with a reach of 75″ or more. Sean Strickland is -105, which is cheaper than 76.5 % of his previous UFC fights (17 fights total). Strickland in his career has won 4 out of 5 fights at similar odds of -105 . (Range 105 to -115)
Strickland has a record of 7-2 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Strickland. Also, our models project a knockout in the fourth round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.265594
Knockout Percentage will be 0.44313157
Submission Percentage will be 0.2912745
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.118328676
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.109678105
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.066101834
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.3488151
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.047769655
Nassourdine Imavov is:
2-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 14 or more for Opp Control Time.
Sean Strickland is:
3-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
4-4 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
1-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
4-3 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
4-2 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
7-4 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
6-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Control Time.
6-3 against fighters with 63 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
5-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Total Wins.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Sean Strickland 56
Wins for Nassourdine Imavov 944
Last month, our statistical simulation predicted Cannonier (4-4) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Strickland (5-3)
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.04%. Its prediction for this fight is that Sean Strickland will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The best price for this fight is going with Strickland. The models have been extremely reliable over the course of time. This fight does not intrigue me with one fighter’s particular skills are much greater than the opponent. However, Strickland is an underdog which means the EDGE is more on the model and less risk.