Everything you need to know for Brendan Loughnane vs Bubba Jenkins

Last week, we broke down the Lewis vs. Spivac fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 27-11 with over 17.2U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Statistics

Brendan Loughnane is:
7-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
2-1 against fighters with 10 or more for Top Strike Speed.
0-0 against fighters with 72 or more for Reach.
1-1 against fighters with 158 or more for Leg Reach.
1-0 against fighters with 24 or more for Points.
7-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Inner Zone.
1-1 against fighters with 135 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
6-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Punches Diff.
7-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Diff.
5-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Leg Diff.
6-0 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Ground Diff.

Bubba Jenkins is:
3-1 against fighters with 1 or more for Total Strikes %.
1-0 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
1-1 against fighters with 20 or more for Ground Time.
5-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Dominant Positions.
1-1 against fighters with 19 or more for Top Strike Speed.
1-0 against fighters with 71 or more for Reach.
1-1 against fighters with 259 or more for Leg Reach.
1-0 against fighters with 33 or more for Points.
5-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Outer Zone.
3-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Punches Diff.
4-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Diff.
4-0 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Leg Diff.
3-1 against fighters with 0 or more for Sig. Str. Ground Diff.
3-1 against fighters with 185 or more for Odds.
1-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.

This graph shows you stats to help you see an edge in the fighters.

Statistical Modeling

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 60% sure that Loughnane is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 13%.

Two weekends ago, our statistical simulation predicted Periera (2-3) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Adesanya (3-2) It seems the pure statistical Bayes simulation is confident in Loughnane

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 74.66%. Its prediction for this fight is that Brendan Loughnane will win.

Best Price for the Fight

The best price for this fight is going with Brendan. The price has not gone so far over for Brendan. In lower levels of mma leagues why would I go against the wrestler? None of us know whether Loughnane can stop the takedowns. However, I am not going against a machine learning model that predicts 75% accuracy on all fights. (13% Edge) You are telling me this is the 1 out of 4 it gets wrong. I don’t think so. Enjoy the PFL fights!