Last week, we broke down the Yan vs. Dvalishvili and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 34-14 with over 22.45U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Leon Edwards has won 2 fights in a row. Kamaru Usman has won 5 of his last 6 fights. Edwards has won 6 of his previous 7 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Edwards’s reach is 74 inches; Usman is 7-1 against Welterweights with a reach of 74″ or more. Leon Edwards is +205, which is cheaper than 93.3 % of his previous UFC fights (15 fights total). Usman in his career has won 4 out of 4 fights at similar odds of -245 . (Range -235 to -255) Welterweights priced between 225 to 185 are 1-9 in the last 10 fights.(Leon Edwards) A fighter with similar odds of 225 to 185 and a reach of 74 inches is 3-7 in the last 10 fights(Leon Edwards)
Usman has a record of 14-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.
Our type of fight models project this to be a ground fight, which should favor Usman. Also, our models project a submission in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.13328636
Knockout Percentage will be 0.25302106
Submission Percentage will be 0.6136926
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.14712268
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.2280598
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.2287081
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.026594374
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.028801817
Leon Edwards is:
5-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
3-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 10 or more for KnockDown Total.
2-0 against fighters with 9 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
9-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
5-0 against fighters with 125 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
3-0 against fighters with 273 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
4-0 against fighters with 15 or more for Total Wins.
Kamaru Usman is:
7-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
11-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
11-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
9-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
11-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total.
3-1 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
6-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
1-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Reversals.
4-0 against fighters with 56 or more for Control Time.
7-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Control Time Difference.
4-0 against fighters with 237 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
5-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Wins.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Leon Edwards 71
Wins for Kamaru Usman 929
Two weeks ago, our statistical simulation predicted Merab (8-7) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Merab (10-5)
Added another statistical simulation model using Monte Carlo. It takes in a both fighters striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdown and submission per minute and number of rounds. Merab was the prediction last time around. (2-1)
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.75%. Its prediction for this fight is that Kamara Usman will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The safe bet is Edwards because you will only lose 100 dollars. However, the question should be are you willing to risk 240 to 260 dollars for Usman?Usman will dominate again in the championship rounds because of his cardio and mixture of mma. Usman will win by decision and will grapple on the fence all fight. I don’t like going against the models because it is the best in the business but it’s really risky to put all that much money into Usman winning. However, if I really wanted to bet on this fight using all the information that we have I would go with Usman by decision or submission. That is my choice and I seem to be doing well with these articles. However, going forward if people reach out in the comments I will do another fight for the weekend.