Get ready for an adrenaline-pumping showdown as we dive into another exhilarating main event: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya! Two weeks ago, we accurately analyzed Edwards vs. Usman and Vettori vs. Dolidze, giving you the best betting odds for each fighter. We’re back at it again, and we want to hear your thoughts in the comments below!
Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, boasts an impressive 35-15 record with over 19.55U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We’re bringing the same winning formula, combining robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and of course, the best odds for each fighter.
Alex “The Striking Machine” Pereira has dominated in his last 4 fights, with 3 of those victories coming by knockout. On the other hand, Adesanya holds an 11-2 record when facing opponents with a smaller reach, like Pereira.
Our fight models predict a striking battle that doesn’t favor either fighter. Although a decision is most likely, don’t rule out a knockout in the second round for those seeking some extra excitement!
Here’s a breakdown of the percentages:
Round 1: 0.08%
Round 2: 30.55%
Round 3: 26.89%
Round 4: 5.56%
Round 5: 1.69%
We’ve also compiled stats that showcase each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, helping you identify potential advantages.
Alex Pereira is:
2-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
4-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-0 against fighters with 84 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
2-0 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Wins.
Israel Adesanya is:
1-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
10-2 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Body Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
9-2 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
6-2 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
11-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Control Time.
10-1 against fighters with 45 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
10-2 against fighters with 4 or more for Total Wins.
After simulating 1000 fights, our statistical simulation predicts 755 wins for Alex Pereira and 245 wins for Israel Adesanya. Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 60% sure that Pereira is the better fighter, with a 14% risk of being wrong.
In our last predictions, the statistical simulation accurately predicted Usman and Vettori (9-8), while the Bayesian Simulation successfully foresaw Usman and Vettori (11-6).
We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Our model predicts that if the fight goes to a decision, Alex Pereira will win four rounds.
With a 66.67% prediction accuracy, our Machine Learning Model foresees Alex Pereira emerging as the victor.
Best Price for the Fight:
Taking inspiration from Grant’s UFC 286 analysis, former champions have a 3-12 record in immediate rematches following their title loss in UFC history. Our money’s on Pereira – the stats, models, and machine learning model all predict his victory. While we commend Adesanya if he manages to win, the smart bet is on the plus money with Pereira. Place your bets, grab a slice of pizza, and get ready for a thrilling night of action!