Last week, we broke down the Strickland vs. Imavov and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 30-12 with over 19.75U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Glover Teixeira suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Jiri Prochazka but has won 6 of his last 7 fights. Jamahal Hill has won 3 fights in a row and has won 6 of his last 7 fights. Hill has finished 4 out of his last 5 fights since December 05, 2020. Teixeira’s reach is 76 inches; Hill is 4-1 against Light Heavyweights with a reach of 76″ or more. Hill has won 4 of his last 5 fights via knockout. Odds are +110 for Hill to win by knockout. Hill in his last three fights averages 7 minutes in the octagon. A fighter with similar odds of 125 to -115 and a reach of 76 inches is 3-7 in the last 10 fights(Glover Teixeira) Hill has a record of 4-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.
Our models project a knockout in the fourth round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.20688234
Knockout Percentage will be 0.62438494
Submission Percentage will be 0.16873275
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.14031665
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.069289945
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.08459591
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.31312606
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.06007939
Glover Teixeira is:
1-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
5-1 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
4-0 against fighters with 13 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
6-3 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
3-3 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
16-6 against fighters with 2 or more for Control Time.
11-3 against fighters with 71 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
13-5 against fighters with 47 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
8-5 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.
Jamahal Hill is:
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total.
2-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
1-1 against fighters with 37 or more for Opp Control Time.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Glover Teixeira 67
Wins for Jamahal Hill 933
Last week, our statistical simulation predicted Imavov (4-5) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Imavov (5-4)
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.57%. Its prediction for this fight is that Glover Teixeira will win.
Best Price for the Fight
Betting on Teixeria is the best price for this fight. The models have been very reliable over the course of time. This fight has a clear path to victory and that is Glover with the takedown. Hill has terrible takedown defense and will need the shot of a lifetime to win by knockout. Teixeira has faced many powerful knockout artists before, and I see him winning by submission or decision. Hill will struggle in the later rounds if it goes that long. However, Teixeira is an underdog, which means the edge is more on the model and less risk. Our Light Heavyweight predictions are 43-16 (73%) since we have started our machine learning models. 7.3 out of 10 times I’m going with Glover on a pick ’em fight and with the edge on the ground game. Yes, our overall model is 67% accurate, but when we drill into how accurate the model is on this particular division, it’s 73%. We predict Glover as he has more tools and experience in a five round fights.