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Everything you need to know for Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac

Last week, we broke down the Hill vs. Teixeira and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 30-13 with over 18.75U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Serghei Spivac has won 2 fights in a row and has won 6 of his last 9 fights. Spivac’s reach is 78 inches; Lewis is 6-3 against Heavyweights with a reach of 78″ or more. Lewis’s reach is 79 inches; Spivac is 3-0 against Heavyweights with a reach of 79″ or more. Derrick Lewis is +195, which is cheaper than 80.0 % of his previous UFC fights (25 fights total). Historically, the fight has a 20.6% chance it goes the entire 5 rounds.
Odds are +450 for this fight to go the distance.
However, breaking with historical data, oddsmakers believe the fight has a 18.0% chance it goes the entire 3 rounds. Heavyweight fights end in a finish 71.01% of the time; this fight to NOT go the distance is currently -750. Looking at the fighters’ previous fights, there is a 73.53% chance this fight ends in a Knockout.
DraftKings has odds of -750 for this fight to not go the distance.
Heavyweights priced between 215 to 175 are 2-8 in the last 10 fights.(Derrick Lewis)
Heavyweights priced between -210 to -250 are 7-3 in the last 10 fights.(Serghei Spivac) Lewis in his last three fights averages 3 minutes in the octagon.
Spivac in his last three fights averages 4 minutes in the octagon.
A fighter with similar odds of -210 to -250 and a reach of 78 inches is 8-2 in the last 10 fights(Serghei Spivac) Lewis has a record of 12-5 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.

Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Lewis. Also, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.

Decision Percentage will be 0.17476852

Knockout Percentage will be 0.4850909

Submission Percentage will be 0.34014064

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.02860903

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.13673168

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.2980477

Round 4 Percentage will be 0.07714303

Round 5 Percentage will be 0.20215073

Statistics

Derrick Lewis is:

2-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
3-4 against fighters with 8 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
3-1 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Ground Attempts 1 min.
3-2 against fighters with 7 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
6-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-1 against fighters with 29 or more for Control Time.
4-1 against fighters with 17 or more for Control Time Difference.
7-4 against fighters with 76 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
7-7 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.

Serghei Spivac is:

4-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
4-3 against fighters with 3 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
5-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 22 or more for Control Time.

This graph shows you stats to help you see an edge in the fighters.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Derrick Lewis 2
Wins for Serghei Spivac 998

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 56% sure that Lewis is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 12%.

Last week, our statistical simulation predicted Hill (5-5) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Hill (6-4)

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 65.99%. Its prediction for this fight is that Serghei Spivac will win.

Best Price for the Fight

The best price for this fight is going with Spivac. The models have been extremely reliable over the course of time. However, more risk on Spivac, so if you don’t want to bet on Spivac then bet on a knockout for the outcome of the fight at -225. Also, could go with a parlay type bet with Spivac winning by knockout at -165.

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