Last week, we broke down the Thompson vs. Holland fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 29-11 with over 19.7U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Jan Blachowicz has won 6 of his last 7 fights. Magomed Ankalaev has won 9 fights in a row and has won 7 of his last 7 fights. Ankalaev has won 4 of his previous 5 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Jan Blachowicz is +225, which is cheaper than 89.5 % of his previous UFC fights (19 fights total).
Magomed Ankalaev is -265, which is cheaper than 80.0% of his previous UFC fights (10 fights total). A fighter with similar odds of -245 to -285 and a reach of 75 inches is 2-8 in the last 10 fights(Magomed Ankalaev) Fighters with a reach of 75 inches such as Magomed Ankalaev are 1-4 in the last 5 fights at Light Heavyweight.
Blachowicz has a record of 8-3 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Blachowicz. However, I expect Magomed will surprise us all with his striking display. Also, our models project a knockout in the first round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.11666384
Knockout Percentage will be 0.48946393
Submission Percentage will be 0.393872
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.70899373
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.039591886
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.043956935
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.060474053
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.033878278
Jan Blachowicz is:
5-4 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
6-5 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-5 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
8-5 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
4-4 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
6-5 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-2 against fighters with 6 or more for KnockDown Total.
1-2 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
3-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Reversals.
3-2 against fighters with 30 or more for Control Time.
2-2 against fighters with 26 or more for Control Time Difference.
10-4 against fighters with 68 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
4-3 against fighters with 111 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
2-3 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Wins.
Magomed Ankalaev is:
4-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
2-0 against fighters with 6 or more for KnockDown Total.
2-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Jan Blachowicz 67
Wins for Magomed Ankalaev 933
Last weekend, our statistical simulation predicted Holland (3-4) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Thompson (5-2)
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 65.66%. Its prediction for this fight is that Jan Blachowicz will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The best price for this fight is going with Magomed. This fight will not be close at all. All of Jan Blachowicz fights are where he can impose his polish power. The light heavyweight division sees some of the fewest fights per year in the UFC and it’s not a great division. The division has not been great since 2015. I don’t see how or where Magomed loses this fight. The biggest problem is are you willing to risk 260 dollars for 100 dollars? I am because of a 72.5% accuracy on these fights it showing we have ~1% edge on this fight. Worst case scenario place money on the fight not going the distance. Light Heavyweight fights end in a finish 63.17% of the time; this fight to NOT go the distance is currently -200 with the machine learning models project it as well. Magomed Ankalaev for the win this weekend to become the new light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Yes, we are going against the machine learning model again this weekend.