Last week, we broke down the Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.
BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 29-11 with over 19.7U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.
Jared Cannonier suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Israel Adesanya but has won 4 of his last 6 fights. Sean Strickland suffered a defeat last time in the octagon against Alex Pereira but has won 6 of his last 8 fights. Strickland has won 5 of his previous 6 bouts when facing an opponent with a longer reach. Strickland’s reach is 76 inches; Cannonier is 4-1 against Middleweights with a reach of 76″ or more. Cannonier’s reach is 77 inches; Strickland is 4-1 against Middleweights with a reach of 77″ or more. Fighters with a reach of 77 inches such as Jared Cannonier are 1-4 in the last 5 fights at Middleweight.
Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Strickland. Also, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.
Decision Percentage will be 0.37325576
Knockout Percentage will be 0.45743373
Submission Percentage will be 0.16931051
Round 1 Percentage will be 0.0021061404
Round 2 Percentage will be 0.14643222
Round 3 Percentage will be 0.48398772
Round 4 Percentage will be 0.0017789484
Round 5 Percentage will be 0.08255103
Jared Cannonier is:
1-1 against fighters with 14 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
2-2 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 14 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
3-3 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
3-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-1 against fighters with 23 or more for Control Time.
3-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Control Time Difference.
2-1 against fighters with 209 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
3-2 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Wins.
Sean Strickland is:
3-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
7-4 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-4 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
4-3 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
8-2 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
8-4 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
9-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Control Time.
3-0 against fighters with 154 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
3-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Wins.
Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Jared Cannonier 643
Wins for Sean Strickland 357
Last weekend, our statistical simulation predicted Ankalaev (3-4) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Ankalaev (5-2)
Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.56%. Its prediction for this fight is that Sean Strickland will win.
Best Price for the Fight
The best price for this fight is going with Strickland. This fight will not be close because Cannonier will not be able to handle the volume that is produced by Strickland. Cannonier is 1-1 with fighters who produce similar volume. If you want Cannonier by knockout that is understandable but we will be going with the model this weekend and the other statistical tests we use to see who will probably win.