Everything you need to know for Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland

Last week, we broke down the Loughnane vs. Jenkins fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 28-11 with over 18.2U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Stephen Thompson is +135, which is cheaper than 94.4 % of his previous UFC fights (18 fights total).

Holland in his last three fights averages 5 minutes in the octagon.

Our type of fight models project this to be a striking fight, which should favor Stephen. Both fighters will be extremely lethal, but Holland has to be a bit better at never getting touched. Also, our models project a knockout in the first round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.

Decision Percentage will be 0.41915512

Knockout Percentage will be 0.43383414

Submission Percentage will be 0.14701076

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.2710353

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.058731195

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.08729697

Round 4 Percentage will be 0.14614911

Round 5 Percentage will be 0.068635605

Statistics

Kevin Holland is:

2-3 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
3-3 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
2-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
2-3 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-5 against fighters with 5 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
3-4 against fighters with 10 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
1-1 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
3-4 against fighters with 16 or more for Control Time.
1-1 against fighters with 12 or more for Total Wins.

Stephen Thompson is:

5-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
8-1 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
7-2 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
8-3 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
2-1 against fighters with 11 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
7-5 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total.
5-3 against fighters with 4 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
2-3 against fighters with 7 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
1-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Reversals.
5-3 against fighters with 25 or more for Control Time.
2-0 against fighters with 154 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
4-3 against fighters with 164 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
2-2 against fighters with 10 or more for Total Wins.

This graph shows you stats to help you see an edge in the fighters.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Stephen Thompson 1
Wins for Kevin Holland 999

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 61% sure that Thompson is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 11%.

Last weekend, our statistical simulation predicted Loughnane (3-3) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Loughnane (4-2)

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.06%. Its prediction for this fight is that Kevin Holland will win.

Best Price for the Fight

The best price for this fight is going with Stephen. The underdog and both fighters love to strike. Stephen is more technical and more powerful with his punches. I don’t believe in Kevin Holland unless he mixes up the fight. Maybe the models know this or suspect it. Personally, bayesian simulation has the right view. Rolling with Stephen Thompson to win this fight.