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Everything you need to know for Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield

Last week, we broke down the great 284 title fight with Makhachev and Volkanovski and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 32-13 with over 20.75U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Jessica Andrade has won 2 fights in a row.

Erin Blanchfield has won 4 fights in a row.

Andrade has finished 3 out of her last 4 fights since October 17, 2020.
Blanchfield is on a 2 fight submission win streak.(Odds are at +500 for Blanchfield to win by submission)

Our type of fight models project this to be a ground fight, which should favor Blanchfield. Also, our models project a submission in the second round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models.

Decision Percentage will be 0.18106027

Knockout Percentage will be 0.36186567

Submission Percentage will be 0.45707405

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.0025890414

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.3775503

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.19598453

Round 4 Percentage will be 0.00343585

Round 5 Percentage will be 0.05651391


This graph shows you stats to help you see an edge in the fighters.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Jessica Andrade 509
Wins for Erin Blanchfield 491

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 84% sure that Blanchfield is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 12%.

Last week, our statistical simulation predicted Makhachev(7-5) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Volkanovski (7-5)

Added another statistical simulation model using Monte Carlo. It takes in a both fighters striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdown and submission per minute and number of rounds.

We are projecting in the simulation model that Jessica Andrade will win all five rounds if it goes to a decision.

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.03%. Its prediction for this fight is that Islam Makhachev will win.

Best Price for the Fight

I expect a finish this weekend. I expect the finish to be on the ground. I will choose Jessica Andrade straight up at about -155 or -160 pricing. I believe the model and the new monte carlo simulation are onto something. Andrade finishes fights and so does Blanchfield. It will take one mistake by either fighter, but I believe Andrade experience will lead her to victory. Andrade by ground game control.

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