Everything you need to know for Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane

Two weeks ago, we broke down the Andrade and Blanchfield fight and provided insight on how the fight was going to go down and what was the best price for each fighter.

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 32-14 with over 19.35U on these 50/50 or main event fight picks. We will be breaking down this main event in a similar fashion with good statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and finally best price for the fighters.

Betting Stats

Jon Jones has won 4 fights in a row. Jones has won 5 of his last 6 fights via decision. Odds are +165 for Jones to win by decision. Jon Jones is -155, which is cheaper than 81.8 % of his previous UFC fights (22 fights total).
Ciryl Gane is +135, which is cheaper than 100.0% of his previous UFC fights (9 fights total). Jones in his last three fights averages 25 minutes in the octagon. Gane in his last five fights averages 21 minutes in the octagon. Fighters with a reach of 84 inches such as Jon Jones are 4-1 in the last 5 fights at Light Heavyweight.
Jones has a record of 20-2 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach.

Our type of fight models project this to be a ground fight, which should favor Jones. Also, our models project a knockout in the third round… for anyone looking for pizza money action by machine learning models. We got the round and outcome of our last prediction correctly. 2nd round submission for Erin Blanchfield.

Decision Percentage will be 0.20295168

Knockout Percentage will be 0.40418234

Submission Percentage will be 0.392866

Round 1 Percentage will be 0.0018476363

Round 2 Percentage will be 0.22071211

Round 3 Percentage will be 0.22104108

Round 4 Percentage will be 0.009026933

Round 5 Percentage will be 0.057150543

Statistics

Ciryl Gane is:

4-0 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
8-1 against fighters with 4 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
4-1 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total.
3-1 against fighters with 5 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.

Jon Jones is:

5-0 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
9-1 against fighters with 2 or more for Sig. Str. Head Landed 1 min.
11-1 against fighters with 5 or more for Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
3-1 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
10-1 against fighters with 9 or more for Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
13-0 against fighters with 3 or more for KnockDown Total.
13-0 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference.
5-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
15-1 against fighters with 11 or more for Control Time.
10-1 against fighters with 3 or more for Control Time Difference.
3-0 against fighters with 247 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
2-0 against fighters with 144 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
6-0 against fighters with 8 or more for Total Wins.

This graph shows you stats to help you see an edge in the fighters.

Statistical Modeling

Statistical Simulation Prediction
Fights simulated: 1000
Wins for Jon Jones 97
Wins for Ciryl Gane 903

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 78% sure that Blanchfield is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 5%.

Two weeks ago, our statistical simulation predicted Andrade (7-6) and our Bayesian Simulation predicted Blanchfield (8-5)

Added another statistical simulation model using Monte Carlo. It takes in a both fighters striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdown and submission per minute and number of rounds. Andrade was the prediction last time around. (0-1)

We are projecting in the monte carlo simulation model that Jon Jones will win four rounds if it goes to a decision.

Our Machine Learning Model currently has a prediction accuracy of 66.07%. Its prediction for this fight is that Jon Jones will win.

Best Price for the Fight

The best price for this fight is going with the experienced Jon Jones. Cardio and mma is Jon Jones best attribute. Yes, has Jon ever fought an athletic fighter like Gane probably not of his caliber. However, Gane got tired once it became a full fight with Ngannou. I believe you cannot address this in 1 training camp. Jones will still have the cardio and the freshness. He will struggle the first round like the simulation projects but he will get stronger as the fight goes on. Jon Jones to win the fight outright is a safer bet than anything else besides the fight probably going the distance.