In the world of mixed martial arts, the clash between two formidable contenders, Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev, has captured the attention of fight enthusiasts and analysts alike. Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, brings an impressive track record, boasting a 36-17 record with over 18.75U on 50/50 and main event fight picks. Here at BCDC, we’ve harnessed the same winning formula that combines robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and, of course, the best odds for each fighter.
As we delve into the betting statistics, our fight models project a third-round knockout win for one of the fighters, indicating an advantage for Usman, who excels in the cardio game. To provide further insights, we’ve broken down the probabilities: Decision (22%), Knockout (53%), and Submission (25%), along with the likelihood of different rounds.
In addition to the numbers, we’ve compiled statistics highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, aiding you in identifying potential advantages. Kamara Usman has an impressive record against fighters with various attributes, while Khamzat Chimaev has showcased his prowess in multiple aspects of the game.
Kamaru Usman is:
8-2 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total.
5-2 against fighters with 2 or more for KnockDown Total Difference
5-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
10-2 against fighters with 15 or more for Control Time.
4-0 against fighters with 15 or more for Control Time Difference.
10-2 against fighters with 110 or more for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
14-2 against fighters with 30 or more for Total Time in Octagon.
9-2 against fighters with 6 or more for Total Wins.
Khamzat Chimaev is:
5-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min.
5-0 against fighters with 5 or more for Opp Sig. Str. Head Attempts 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 3 or more for Opp Total Strikes Landed 1 min.
6-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Opp Total Strikes Attempts 1 min.
3-0 against fighters with 2 or more for Submission Total Attempts.
3-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Opp Submission Total Attempts.
5-0 against fighters with 7 or more for Opp Control Time.
Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 64% sure that Chimaev is the better fighter, with a 11% risk of being wrong.
In our last predictions, the Bayesian Simulation predicted Cejudo (12-8).
We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Expected Winner for the Monte Carlo Simulation is Chimaev (5-3)
I have created one more statistical testing model and it is bootstrap which should help us solve who wins or it might just be more confusion..
The bootstrap simulation predicts the likelihood of one fighter winning against another in a UFC match. It does this by using statistics like strikes landed per minute, takedown attempts per minute, knockdown rate, and submission rate for both fighters. The simulation runs 10,000 times, randomly generating statistics for each fighter based on their averages. These statistics are used to calculate a score for each fighter for each round of the match. The scores are tallied up over a specified number of rounds to determine the winner. The simulation generates a distribution of possible outcomes, estimating the probability of one fighter winning over the other. The results are displayed in a histogram plot, showing the frequency of different win percentages, with the mean win percentage shown as a red line. This simulation estimates the probability of one fighter winning over another based on their statistical averages, but it’s important to note that the actual outcome can be influenced by other factors like injuries, game plans, and performance on the day of the match.
With a prediction accuracy of 65.15%, our Machine Learning Model anticipates Kamaru Usman emerging as the victor.
Best Bet for the Fight:
If you are looking for the best bet for the fight, you might want to consider Kamaru Usman as your top pick. He is a former freestyle wrestler and a mixed martial artist who competes in the welterweight division of the UFC. He boasts an impressive record of 20 wins and 3 losses, and he is renowned for his endurance and stamina. Usman has the ability to transform the fight into a grueling cardio battle that will test his opponent’s will and skill. Notably, he has experience fighting at welterweight, where he successfully defended the title five times and achieved a unanimous decision victory over the current middleweight champion, Sean Strickland, in 2017.
On the other hand, Chimaev is moving up from welterweight after missing weight in his previous fight. This transition may pose challenges as he adjusts to facing bigger and stronger opponents in the new division. Additionally, despite taking the fight on short notice, Usman holds two advantages: he does not need to undergo weight cutting, and he is accustomed to fighting cardio wrestling fights. In contrast, Chimaev has only experienced three-round fights in his career, potentially leading to cardio issues in the later stages of the bout.
Personally, I believe the most appealing money line bet is on Usman, who holds a positive integer of +270. This implies that if you place a successful $100 bet on him, you would win $270. This presents an enticing value proposition. What are your thoughts?