BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 23-10 with over 13.3U on these 50/50 fight picks. This weekend’s fights are great to look at from a data perspective since both matchups are toss up fights and have exciting, well-known fighters. These selections went 1-1 two weekends ago for the UFC fights.
Ben Saddik VS. Benjamin Adegbuyi
Both fighters have lost their previous fight. Ben Saddik lost a championship fight to Verhoeven. Saddik had won his last three of four fights and lost to Verhoeven by KO/TKO. In my opinion, Saddik lost due to his shin and cardio. Next, Adegbuyi got smoked by Plazibat, who showed him a smaller heavyweight still packs a big punch! Adegbuyi is 2-2 in his last four fights, winning one by decision and one by knockout.
The graph below looks at these kickboxers’ average number of strikes to get a knockdown. Adegbuyi clearly does not have the same power in his career as Saddik.
Below is a control chart of Adegbuyi’s power in his career. We can clearly see in his first 7 fights, he was below average (above or at the black line). Suddenly, through ten fights we can see a clear change in his fight approach. His fighting style has completely changed, and he looks more for the KO. He is now about average and consistently within the average range of power for a fighter.
Using the below comparison graph, I do not see anything the fighters could possibly have as a clear edge. They are nearly perfectly overlapped.
Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models, BCDC is 71% sure that Adegbuyi is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 11%.
Personally, I do not see this fight as an easy choice like the simulation does. I think it’s slightly more complicated than who is better… but again, stats tell a story. It just might not be something you want to hear. I would like to say it all depends on if it’s fireworks in the first round or not. Does Saddik come out blazing and throw hammers to Adegbuyi and catch him? If yes, then the fight goes to Saddik. But if Adegbuyi can take a shot after the Plazibat fight, then he will weather the first-round storm and pick up a KO/TKO in the later rounds.
Power goes to Saddik, Decision Possibility goes to Adegbuyi, and other stats equal out as we saw in the comparison graph. Bayes Simulation goes to Adegbuyi.
Only going off of statistics and not our machine learning models, I say Adegbuyi will win this fight over Saddik.