Data Scientist Previews 50/50 UFC Fights

BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, is 21-8 with over 13.8U on these 50/50 fight picks. This weekend’s fights are great to look at from a data perspective since both matchups are toss up fights and have exciting, well-known fighters.

Joselyne Edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim

Check this stat out: The red corner in 2022 is profitable of $2,200 dollars and big edge for 50/50 fights. The red corner fighter has won 180 out of 360 fights this year (59% accuracy).

Womens’ Bantamweights at exactly -120 odds are 2-2 since 2011, but our previous stat does favor Joselyne Edwards being in the red corner for Saturday night. Ji Yeon Kim is 1-4 against fighters with 9 or more for Sig. Str. Attempts 1 min. Obviously, Kim has struggled against volume strikers and Edwards loves a good standup fight.

However, Edwards does not do well against experienced fighters and grapplers.

Joselyne Edwards is 1-2 against fighters with 8 or more for Control Time.
Joselyne Edwards is 0-2 against fighters with 3 or more for Total Wins.

Kim has a grappling style that could be a problem for Edwards.

Edwards won her last fight via decision. Odds are +120 for Edwards to win by decision.

In her career, Edwards has won 1 out of 1 fights at similar odds of -120 (Range -110 to -130). In Yeon’s career, she has won 0 out of 2 fights at similar odds of 100 (Range 110 to -110).

I know some of you are not big on stats, but you love reading opinions… So here is my opinion on this fight: Kim can’t handle a volume fighter, and sportsbooks have a good read on Kim in the odds she is at right now.

Looking at the above graph, it shows the whole picture for these fighters. Kim is read like a newspaper on Sundays for sportsbooks, as she has gone 1-4 as the underdog and Edwards is 2-0 as a favorite. The models are projecting this fight at a 91% chance to go the distance. This favors neither fighter, but the models also project the fight to be a striking fight. This favors Edwards as she is a volume striker that Kim likely cannot handle. I pick Edwards by decision for this UFC BCDC 50/50 preview fight.

Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Pavlovich

I am not sure if betting on the money line is the move on this fight, but this is the next closest fight by money line odds which completely makes sense. These fighters are pure knockout power and usually do not disappoint when they are in a fight. Pavlovich has not reached past the second round in his UFC career. Pavlovich has a record of 3-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach. The volume for Pavlovich is crazy. We searched our fighter directory and saw these numbers!

However, Derrick Lewis combats these stats and Pavlovich in general. Lewis handles high volume and power strikers! I will run some tests on these fighters, but I am not sure if I can go against these numbers for Derrick. This is insane!

  1. Derrick Lewis is 7-0 against fighters with 24 or less for Sig. Str. Per KnockDown.
  2. Derrick Lewis is 3-0 against fighters with 11 or less for Total Time in Octagon.
  3. Derrick Lewis is 2-0 against fighters with 6 or more for Sig. Str. Landed 1 min.

Let’s break down these three stats because it is crazy how well he matches up against Sergei Pavlovich. Lewis can handle fighters with power, a little bit of known experience to the UFC world, and high volume. High volume is what Sergei provided in his 3 first round finishes.

This graph shows how each fighter does across multiple statistics, which might help you see who has an edge.

Sergei is obviously the more accurate striker, but will he be able to last 3 rounds with the most powerful puncher in the UFC? The models are projecting this to be a ground fight that goes the distance, and I can see this happening as well. I can see Derrick Lewis using his strength to takedown Sergei and rough him up for 3 rounds. In my opinion, it would be difficult to go against Derrick Lewis even though the models are projecting Sergei to win the fight. Right now, we are 3-2 in the last five Heavyweight fights that we have predicted using modeling. I will be going with Derrick Lewis winning this fight. If he wins, he shows that he is above most fighters in the division and could be considered elite in the future.

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