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Everything you need to know for UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

In the world of mixed martial arts, the clash between two formidable contenders, Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira, has captured the attention of fight enthusiasts and analysts alike. Our BCDC Data Scientist, Brandon Bergstrom, brings an impressive track record, boasting a 37-18 record with over 18.75U on 50/50 and main event fight picks. Here at BCDC, we’ve harnessed the same winning formula that combines robust statistics, statistical modeling, machine learning models, and, of course, the best odds bet for each fighter.

As we delve into the betting statistics, our fight models project a second-round knockout win for one of the fighters, indicating an advantage for Pereira, who excels in the stand-up game. To provide further insights, we’ve broken down the probabilities: Decision (21%), Knockout (53%), and Submission (26%), along with the likelihood of different rounds.

In addition to the numbers, we’ve compiled statistics highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, aiding you in identifying potential advantages. Alex Pereira has an impressive record against fighters with various attributes, while Jiri Prochazka has showcased his prowess in multiple aspects of the game.

Fighters Results at the Odds for the Fight:

As illustrated above, Pereira remains undefeated as the favorite. It’s quite remarkable to consider that Prochazka has had only three fights in the UFC, given his level of experience. Unfortunately, Prochazka’s health issues have been a significant setback, underlining the importance of durability in assessing a fighter’s greatness. The red line represents the underdog, Prochazka, while the blue line denotes the favorite, Pereira. These lines also correspond to the fighters’ respective corners in the ring, red for Prochazka and blue for Pereira.

Statistical Modeling:

Our Bayesian Simulation, which doesn’t rely on machine learning models, is 62% sure that Prochazka is the better fighter, with a 17% risk of being wrong.

Using Bayesian Simulation and not machine learning models. beforethecagedoorcloses is 62% sure that Prochazka is the better fighter with a risk of being wrong at 17%.

In our last predictions, the Bayesian Simulation predicted Volkanovski (12-9).

We’ve added a Monte Carlo simulation model, which factors in each fighter’s striking per minute, takedowns per minute, knockdowns, submissions, and number of rounds. Expected Winner for the Monte Carlo Simulation is Alexander Volkanovski (5-4)

I have created one more statistical testing model and it is bootstrap which should help us solve who wins or it might just be more confusion..

The bootstrap simulation predicts the likelihood of one fighter winning against another in a UFC match. It does this by using statistics like strikes landed per minute, takedown attempts per minute, knockdown rate, and submission rate for both fighters. The simulation runs 10,000 times, randomly generating statistics for each fighter based on their averages. These statistics are used to calculate a score for each fighter for each round of the match. The scores are tallied up over a specified number of rounds to determine the winner. The simulation generates a distribution of possible outcomes, estimating the probability of one fighter winning over the other. The results are displayed in a histogram plot, showing the frequency of different win percentages, with the mean win percentage shown as a red line. This simulation estimates the probability of one fighter winning over another based on their statistical averages, but it’s important to note that the actual outcome can be influenced by other factors like injuries, game plans, and performance on the day of the match. Bootstrap is 3-1 in predictions.

With a prediction accuracy of 65.25%, our Machine Learning Model anticipates Jiri Prochazka emerging as the victor.

Best Bet for the Fight:

Prochazka is poised for victory with his extensive and diverse fighting background. Boasting an MMA record of 28 wins and only 3 losses, he has secured 25 of these victories through knockouts or submissions. His superior height and reach give him a strategic advantage to maintain distance and execute powerful strikes. As a former light heavyweight champion who relinquished his title due to injury, Prochazka is undoubtedly driven to reconquer his former glory.

On the other hand, Pereira’s prospects are equally promising due to his explosive and dynamic approach to striking. His impressive kickboxing record stands at 32 wins, 7 losses, with 21 wins by knockout. Notably, his victories include knockouts against the current middleweight champion Sean Strickland, as well as Israel Adesanya, who is celebrated as one of the premier strikers in MMA lore. Having formerly held the middleweight championship and moving up to light heavyweight with a win over ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, Pereira enters the fight with confidence and a fierce desire to secure another championship title.

Despite the compelling case for each combatant, the model predicts Prochazka as the winner, interestingly positioning him as the underdog. Yet, the crucial determinant may well be his fight IQ — his ability to adapt, strategize, and make split-second decisions in the heat of battle and mixes the fight up. Personally, I side with the model’s prediction and the more favorable odds it presents for what appears to be a fight with no clear favorite. In a match-up that’s essentially a toss-up, the better value lies with Prochazka, and that’s where my choice falls.

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