How is the man who is leading the main event for UFC 272 not in the BCDC top ten rankings for his weight class? Only two other fighters have been the main event of a pay per view event without a belt on the line in the recent past… Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz. I am going to delve into the data with a few of our ranked opponents to show you why Jorge Masvidal might be more charisma than skill. However, he might be able to prove himself and get into our top ten with a big victory this coming Saturday March 5th.
Here are the current top ten fighters in the Welterweight division.
WELTERWEIGHTS TOP TEN
1. Kamaru Usman
2. Khamzat Chimaev
3. Sean Brady
4. Colby Covington
5. Vicente Luque
6. Muslim Salikhov
7. Belal Muhammad
8. Leon Edwards
9. Gilbert Burns
10. Khaos Williams
Let’s go over some data points we take into consideration with rankings.
First, there’s the dominance score.
Calculating Dominance Score
Example KO win = 5 Points
Example Submission Win = 5 Points
Example Split Decision Win = 1
Example U Decision Win = 2.78
Example U Decision Loss = -2.78
Not all wins are created equal. Using historical data, we create a point system for different outcomes.
Looking at the graph, we can see Jorge Masvidal has the higher total score… but he also has 3 more fights in the UFC than Gilbert Burns. If we take Masvidal’s score of 48.9 divided by the number of fights (20), we calculate his average dominance score of 2.445. Using this same method of calculation for Gilbert Burns gives us a slightly higher score of 2.58.
Next, there is winning percentage.
Let’s look at our #4 ranked fighter, Colby Covington. He could potentially be ranked a lot higher had he not faced Kamara Usman twice. Colby Covington is 11-3 in the UFC, whereas Jorge Masvidal is 12-8. This gives Covington a winning percentage of 78.57% and Masvidal a percentage of 60%. In the UFC, to be considered as in the 75th percentile of fighters, your winning percentage must be at least 58%. This means Masvidal barely scrapes by into that grouping… All the fighters on our ranked list have an impressive winning percentage.
Thirdly, we take a look at power.
Jorge Masvidal does not have the power that everyone thinks he has in the UFC. Jorge Masvidal is an excellent fighter but is his top attribute as a fighter really his KO technique? Take a look at the graph on the right. This is a quality control chart to identify Jorge Masvidal’s power. The 3 lines represent 150, 75, and 0 strikes per knockdown. Jorge Masvidal’s time series analysis shows he did not get his first knockdown until his 6th fight and after many strikes. He has steadily gotten better with his power, but he has still been below average.
In the UFC, the average is around 75 strikes per knockdown, which is represented by the green line. As you can see, Masvidal is above the green line, which means he needs to land more strikes to get a takedown than the average UFC fighter. In order to be ranked highly in this regard, Masvidal would need to be below the green line.
Finally, let’s look at their strikes per minute.
Khaos Williams, our #10 ranked opponent, has 5 strikes landed per minute. Jorge Masvidal is at 4.2 strikes landed per minute. Our last ranked fighter has a better score in this area than Masvidal.
Masvidal has shown glimpses of greatness but has not yet been consistent in the UFC. He will entertain the fans and make the fights extremely exciting, but the data shows he is not as elite as everyone may think. His dominance score has taken a bit of hit fighting the #1 fighter in the world right now, Kamaru Usman, but we could say the same for Colby Covington. Covington went out a little better the second time Usman, whereas Masvidal got worse in fighting Usman. If Masvidal really wants to get in the top ten rankings, it will require him to beat a solid contender like Covington in spectacular fashion! BCDC Fight analysis will be brought to you on March 4th.