UFC #271 Analysis

Main Event Preview:

Whittaker has looked like a new fighter since losing to Adesanya in October 2019. Adesanya is extremely expensive this weekend, so the initial thought is to go with Whittaker as he is 1-0 in rematch fights in his UFC career. However, Adesanya is 9-1 when facing an opponent with a smaller reach. Whittaker is riding 3 straight wins by unanimous decision, and Israel is sitting on a 2-1 record in his last three fights. However, it is tough to go against Adesanya’s 90% projected chance of winning. With the odds being -290 (74% chance of winning), there would be a 16% edge in the money line. Our machine learning model has Adesanya, and I cannot see Whittaker using his grappling skills well enough to take down Adesanya. I will ride with the data on this one and pick Adesanya.

Co Main Event Preview: 

There is a classic Heavyweight fight on Saturdays Co-Main Event. Tai Tuivasa has been on a 4-fight winning streak all coming by knockout. Odds are +215 for Tuivasa to win by knockout. Lewis on the other hand has won 3 of his last 4 fights via knockout at -125. Personally, I don’t see this fight ending quickly. We always seem to see these big heavyweight fights not end in spectacular fashion.  This fight will be decided after the 1st round and Lewis is the more diverse MMA fighter. I see Lewis getting a takedown and winning this fight.

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